Canadian stock market since COVID‑19: Why a V-shaped price recovery? Staff Analytical Note 2020-22 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Ryan Shotlander Between February 19 and March 23, 2020, the Canadian stock market plunged due to the severe economic impact of COVID-19. By the end of the summer, the stock market had already recovered a significant portion of its losses, leaving many asking if investors see the economy through rose-coloured glasses. Despite these concerns, we find that current market valuations for companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange align well, on average, with the declines in earning forecasts observed since the start of the year. We also find these market valuations are consistent with the discount rate returning to its pre-pandemic level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
October 19, 2020 CARR’s mandate expanded to include analysis of CDOR The Canadian Fixed Income Forum (CFIF) has expanded the mandate of the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate working group (CARR) to include an analysis of the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR). Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
October 19, 2020 The Bank of Canada launches the CORRA Advisory Group Earlier this year, the Bank of Canada became the administrator of the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) and since June has published this Canadian interest rate benchmark on its website using an improved methodology. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): CORRA Advisory Group
October 19, 2020 Operational details for upcoming secondary market purchases of Government of Canada securities (October 26-November 6) As previously announced, the Bank of Canada (the Bank) launched on April 1, 2020 a program to purchase Government of Canada securities in the secondary market – the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP). Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program
October 19, 2020 Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey question on wage growth Starting with the 2020 autumn survey, the results from a question on labour cost growth are being included in the Business Outlook Survey. This document describes the question and presents the correlations between the responses and various measures of wages and employment. Content Type(s): Background materials
October 19, 2020 Business Outlook Survey—Autumn 2020 With many containment measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic being lifted, results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment has improved but remains weak across all regions. Businesses expect the pace of the recovery in their sales to slow. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
October 19, 2020 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2020 The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) collects respondents’ views on inflation, the labour market and household finances. The survey for the third quarter of 2020 was conducted from August 17 to September 1, 2020. Reported COVID‑19 cases have risen in some provinces since the survey was conducted. The survey included questions, introduced in the previous quarter, on the impacts of COVID‑19 and the measures to contain its spread, along with new questions on how the pandemic is affecting households’ savings. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity Staff Working Paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, C32, C5, C58, L, L1, L14
October 15, 2020 Bank of Canada announces changes to programs that support key financial markets As overall financial market conditions continue to improve in Canada, usage in several of the Bank of Canada’s programs that support the functioning of key financial markets has declined significantly. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility, Canada Mortgage Bond Purchase Program, Term repo operations