Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19 Staff Analytical Note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, D14, E, E2, E24, E27, E6, E62, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2
A Financial Stability Analysis of Zombie Firms in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-3 Timothy Grieder, Juan Ortega We measure the prevalence of zombie firms in Canada and assess how they could potentially affect the financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32
May 16, 2019 Release of the Financial System Review Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Regional economic developments, Sectoral balance sheet
Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32
October 16, 2018 Keeping the financial system healthy Joshua Slive, Donald Coletti We are all better off if the financial system can weather a storm or two. And every one of us plays a role in keeping it that way. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics, Sectoral balance sheet
June 7, 2018 Release of the Financial System Review Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Regional economic developments, Sectoral balance sheet
Measuring Vulnerabilities in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Using Industry- and Firm-Level Data Staff Analytical Note 2018-17 Timothy Grieder, Michal Lipsitz Aggregate non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP has been growing rapidly in recent years and is at an all-time high. This growth began in 2011 and accelerated as the oil price shock affected the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32
Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation Staff Analytical Note 2017-25 Timothy Grieder, Dylan Hogg, Thibaut Duprey Over the past several years, the Bank for International Settlements has noted that Canada’s credit-to-GDP gap has widened and is above thresholds indicating future banking stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E3, E32, G, G0, G01, G1, G2, G21, G3, G30
November 28, 2017 Release of the Financial System Review Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Regional economic developments, Sectoral balance sheet
November 28, 2017 Analysis of Household Vulnerabilities Using Loan-Level Mortgage Data Financial System Review - November 2017 Olga Bilyk, Alexander Ueberfeldt, Yang Xu This report examines detailed data on home mortgages to provide a better understanding of the vulnerabilities associated with the mortgage market. The proportion of low-ratio mortgages is growing, particularly in regions with strong house price growth. Moreover, these borrowers exhibit less flexibility to adverse shocks, since they have high debt levels relative to income and have taken mortgages with long amortization periods. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28