An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy Staff Working Paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5
What we can learn by linking firms’ reported emissions with their financial data Staff Analytical Note 2023-4 Matthew Ackman, Timothy Grieder, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée We analyze the financial statements and stock prices of publicly traded firms incorporated in Canada that report greenhouse gas emissions. We find that these firms primarily use equity financing. We also find that equity investors increasingly account for firms’ emissions when making investment decisions but the impact appears small. This suggests that assets exposed to climate change remain at risk of a sudden repricing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Climate change, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G3, Q, Q5
Cost Pass-Through with Capacity Constraints and International Linkages Staff Working Paper 2023-16 Reinhard Ellwanger, Hinnerk Gnutzmann, Piotr Śpiewanowski How are regional cost shocks passed through into global prices? We investigate the role of short-run capacity constraints and show that they can induce stark non-linearities in the pass-through. We highlight this effect for the market for ammonia, a commodity produced largely from natural gas. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L6, L65, Q, Q4, Q40, Q5, Q54
We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54
Climate Variability and International Trade Staff Working Paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real? Staff Working Paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43
Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production Staff Working Paper 2022-36 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger, Matthew Krutkiewicz Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Climate change, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, Q, Q4, Q40, Q48, Q5, Q54
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Erik Ens, Olivier Gervais, Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Serdar Kabaca, Miguel Molico, Sergey Paltsev, Alex Proulx, Argyn Toktamyssov Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q5, Q54
Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions Staff Working Paper 2021-47 Soojin Jo, Lilia Karnizova Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q50, Q55
Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks Staff Analytical Note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C3, C38, D, D1, D14, Q, Q5, Q54