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398 Results

Stress testing central counterparties for resolution planning

The Bank of Canada completed its first resolution plan for the Canadian Derivatives and Clearing Corporation (CDCC) in 2024. To estimate the resolution costs, we apply the extreme value theory method to simulate the credit losses that would result from extreme scenarios where multiple clearing members default at the same time.

The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking

Staff Working Paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl
Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts.

The new repo tri-party Canadian Collateral Management Service: Benefits to the financial system and to the Bank of Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2025-6 Philippe Muller, Maksym Padalko
The Canadian Collateral Management Service (CCMS) is a new tri-party collateral management service offered by the TMX Group and Clearstream. CCMS will enhance Canada’s financial infrastructure for securities financing transactions, including for the repurchase, or repo, market that is a core funding market in Canada. We explain the importance of the repo market and describe the benefits of the CCMS for market participants and for the Bank of Canada.

Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks

We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience.

Non-Bank Dealing and Liquidity Bifurcation in Fixed-Income Markets

Staff Working Paper 2025-2 Michael Brolley, David Cimon
We model non-bank entry into fixed-income markets and state-dependent liquidity. Non-bank financial institutions improve liquidity more during normal times than in stress. Banks may become less reliable to marginal clients, exacerbating the difference in liquidity between normal and stressed times. Central bank lending during stress may limit this harmful division.

The International Exposure of the Canadian Banking System

In 2023, the share of Canadian banks’ foreign assets and liabilities amounted to around 50%. While Canadian banks engage domestically mostly with households and non-financial corporations, their most common counterparties abroad are non-bank financial institutions.

Using new loan data to better understand mortgage holders

Staff Analytical Note 2025-1 Odae Al Aboud, Saarah Sheikh, Adam Su, Yang Xu
The Bank of Canada is using an enhanced dataset that tracks the stock of outstanding mortgages and home equity lines of credit held by federally regulated lenders. This paper highlights some of the new details in the dataset and how they impact the Bank’s understanding of the mortgage market.

Interaction of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies: Practice Ahead of Theory

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-18 Thibaut Duprey, Yaz Terajima, Jing Yang
We draw on the Canadian experience to examine how monetary and macroprudential policies interact and possibly complement each other in achieving their respective price and financial stability objectives.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28

How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market

Staff Analytical Note 2024-26 Patrick Aldridge, Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova
We find that foreign central banks own a large share of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds and tend to hold their positions for longer than other types of asset managers. This buy-and-hold behaviour could offer benefits. For example, foreign central banks may be less likely than other asset managers to sell bonds and add to strains on market liquidity in periods of turmoil. However, foreign central banks’ buy-and-hold behaviour combined with their minimal lending of GoC bonds in securities-financing markets, as observed in our available data, can potentially lower liquidity because fewer GoC bonds are available for others to transact in secondary markets. Indeed, we find that higher levels of foreign central banks’ GoC bond holdings are related to lower liquidity.

Is This Normal? The Cost of Assuming that Derivatives Have Normal Returns

Staff Working Paper 2024-46 Radoslav Raykov
Derivatives exchanges often determine collateral requirements, which are fundamental to market safety, with dated risk models assuming normal returns. However, derivatives returns are heavy-tailed, which leads to the systematic under-collection of collateral (margin). This paper uses extreme value theory (EVT) to evaluate the cost of this margin inadequacy to market participants in the event of default.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G2, G20
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