BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2021? Staff Analytical Note 2021-15 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19? Staff Analytical Note 2021-3 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ryan Shotlander The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
COVID-19 Crisis: Lessons Learned for Future Policy Research Staff Discussion Paper 2021-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Corey Garriott, Jesse Johal, Jessica Lee, Andreas Uthemann One year later, we review the events that took place in Canadian fixed-income markets at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis and propose potential policy research questions for future work. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G20, G21, G23
Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service Staff Working Paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14
Outside Investor Access to Top Management: Market Monitoring versus Stock Price Manipulation Staff Working Paper 2020-43 Josef Schroth Should managers be paid in stock options if they provide stock-market participants with information about the firm? This paper studies how firm owners trade off the benefit of stock-price incentives and better-informed market participants against the cost of potential stock-price manipulation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D86, G, G1, G14, G3, G32, G34, M, M1, M12, M4, M41
Canadian stock market since COVID‑19: Why a V-shaped price recovery? Staff Analytical Note 2020-22 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Ryan Shotlander Between February 19 and March 23, 2020, the Canadian stock market plunged due to the severe economic impact of COVID-19. By the end of the summer, the stock market had already recovered a significant portion of its losses, leaving many asking if investors see the economy through rose-coloured glasses. Despite these concerns, we find that current market valuations for companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange align well, on average, with the declines in earning forecasts observed since the start of the year. We also find these market valuations are consistent with the discount rate returning to its pre-pandemic level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
Is the stock market pricing in a V‑shaped recovery? Staff Analytical Note 2020-17 James Kyeong Major stock indexes have bounced back from their March 23 trough to about 10 percent below their peaks. However, stocks that are more sensitive to the business cycle have not performed as well during this market rally. This suggests that stock markets are pricing in a slower, shallower economic recovery. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G14
BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2020? Staff Analytical Note 2020-13 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh The Boc–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2020 edition includes a new section examining the scale of domestic arrears in 2018. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology, Assumptions and Sources Technical Report No. 117 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial institutions, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
Trading for Bailouts Staff Working Paper 2020-23 Toni Ahnert, Caio Machado, Ana Elisa Pereira In times of high uncertainty, governments often implement interventions such as bailouts to financial institutions. To use public resources efficiently and to avoid major spillovers to the rest of the economy, policy-makers try to identify which institutions should receive assistance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14, G18