International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects Staff working paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight Staff working paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2023? Staff analytical note 2023-10 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Karim McDaniels, Alex Charron The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2023 edition includes a new section about the characteristics of sovereign defaults and provides new visuals showing regional debt in default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References Technical report No. 125 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Joe Berry Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology and Assumptions Technical report No. 124 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Joe Berry The Bank of Canada (BoC), in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE), developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults in 2014. The database is posted on the Bank of Canada’s website and updated annually. The BoC–BoE database draws on datasets published by various public and private sector sources. It combines elements of these, together with new information, to develop comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows Staff working paper 2023-31 Nick Sander I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F3, F32, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints Staff working paper 2023-10 Kim Huynh, Robert Petrunia, Joel Rodrigue, Walter Steingress We examine the relationship between firms’ performance and credit constraints affecting export market entry. Using administrative Canadian firm-level data, our findings show that new exporters (a) increase their productivity, (b) raise their leverage ratio and (c) increase investment. We estimate that 48 percent of Canadian manufacturers face binding credit constraints when deciding whether to enter export markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F3, F36, G, G2, G20, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock Staff working paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E65, F, F3, F31, F36, F4, F42, G, G1, G18, G2, G23, G3, G38 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows Staff working paper 2022-46 Julien Bengui, Louphou Coulibaly Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F38, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2022? Staff analytical note 2022-11 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Karim McDaniels, Zacharie Quiviger The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk