Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions Staff Working Paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Is Central Bank Currency Fundamental to the Monetary System? Staff Discussion Paper 2020-2 Hanna Armelius, Carl Andreas Claussen, Scott Hendry In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5
Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel Staff Working Paper 2020-12 Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon, Rodolfo Rigato Standard theories of price adjustment are based on the problem of a single-product firm, and therefore they may not be well suited to analyze price dynamics in the economy with multiproduct firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11
A Uniform Currency in a Cashless Economy Staff Analytical Note 2020-7 Walter Engert, Ben Fung A number of questions can arise when considering the implications of a cashless society. This note considers whether cash is necessary for a uniform currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5
A Portfolio-Balance Model of Inflation and Yield Curve Determination Staff Working Paper 2020-6 Antonio Diez de los Rios How does the supply of nominal government debt affect the macroeconomy? To answer this question, we propose a portfolio-balance model of the yield curve in which inflation is determined through an interest rate rule. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63
Technology Approach for a CBDC Staff Analytical Note 2020-6 Dinesh Shah, Rakesh Arora, Han Du, Sriram Darbha, John Miedema, Cyrus Minwalla In this note, we highlight a range of technical options and considerations in designing a contingent system for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in Canada and explore how these options achieve stated public policy goals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3, O31
CBDC and Monetary Sovereignty Staff Analytical Note 2020-5 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Yu Zhu In an increasingly digitalized world, issuers of private digital currency can weaken central banks’ ability to stabilize the economy. By continuing to make central bank money attractive as a payment instrument in a digital world, a central bank digital currency (CDBC) could help to maintain a country’s monetary sovereignty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F5, F55, G, G1, G15
CBDC and Monetary Policy Staff Analytical Note 2020-4 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Yu Zhu Improving the conduct of monetary policy is unlikely to be the main motivation for central banks to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC). While some argue that a CBDC could allow more complex transfer schemes or the ability to break below the zero lower bound, we find these benefits might be small or difficult to realize in practice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E51, E52
The Effect of Mortgage Rate Resets on Debt: Evidence from TransUnion (Part I) Staff Analytical Note 2020-2 Katya Kartashova This note studies how decreases in mortgage rates affect the behaviour of borrowers in terms of spending on durable goods and repaying debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31
The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective Staff Discussion Paper 2020-1 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a “textbook” model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E41, E43, E5, E51, E52, E58, E6, E61, E63