Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
January 20, 2021 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
January 20, 2021 Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues quantitative easing Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
January 20, 2021 Monetary Policy Report – January 2021 While a second wave of COVID-19 is hurting Canadians now, the economy should rebound strongly later in the year. The Bank is forecasting growth of around 4 percent this year and close to 5 percent in 2022. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
January 11, 2021 Operational details for upcoming secondary market purchases of Government of Canada securities (January 18-January 28) As previously announced, the Bank of Canada (the Bank) launched on April 1, 2020 a program to purchase Government of Canada securities in the secondary market – the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP). Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program
January 11, 2021 Business Outlook Survey - data by sector (four-quarter moving averages) Access quarterly results from the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) based on interviews with firms in the primary, manufacturing, CITU, trade, FIRE, and CPBS sectors.
January 11, 2021 Business Outlook Survey - data by region (four-quarter moving averages) Access quarterly results from the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) based on interviews with firms from the Atlantic region, Québec, Ontario, the Prairies, British Columbia and Yukon.
January 11, 2021 Backgrounder on Business Outlook Survey data by region, sector and firm size Every quarter, the Bank of Canada surveys about 100 firms and publishes the resulting narrative and related data in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). Firms are asked to participate based on several criteria—most importantly, their region, sector and size. Content Type(s): Background materials
January 11, 2021 Business Outlook Survey—Winter 2020–21 In the winter Business Outlook Survey, firms pointed to a continued recovery supported by strengthening domestic and foreign demand, particularly in goods-producing sectors. Still, firms expect the recovery to be uneven; in particular, businesses that have been hit hard by the pandemic anticipate challenging times ahead. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey