International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases Staff Working Paper 2015-2 Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca This paper evaluates the international spillover effects of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) using a two-country dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, and portfolio balance effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
January 13, 2015 Drilling Down - Understanding Oil Prices and Their Economic Impact Remarks Timothy Lane Madison International Trade Association (MITA) Madison, Wisconsin Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the causes of the recent drop in oil prices and its effects on the global and Canadian economies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
Why Do Canadian Firms Invest and Operate Abroad? Implications for Canadian Exports Staff Discussion Paper 2014-7 Martin Coiteux, Patrick Rizzetto, Lena Suchanek, Jane Voll Canadian foreign direct investment and sales of Canadian multinational firms’ operations abroad, particularly in the manufacturing industry and in the United States, have accelerated sharply over the past decade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F2, F21, F23, F4, F41
The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies Staff Working Paper 2014-53 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Garima Vasishtha The Federal Reserve’s path for withdrawal of monetary stimulus and eventually increasing interest rates could have substantial repercussions for capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F33, F4, F42
The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-50 Vikram Rai, Lena Suchanek The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program has been accompanied by a flow of funds into emerging-market economies (EMEs) in search of higher returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E5, E58, F, F3, F32, G, G1, G14
November 13, 2014 Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing on Emerging-Market Economies Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Robert Lavigne, Subrata Sarker, Garima Vasishtha While quantitative easing (QE) in the United States likely increased capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs), putting upward pressure on asset prices and exchange rates, diverging fundamentals between advanced economies and EMEs were also important drivers. Evidence suggests that the benefits of QE to EMEs, in higher global demand and increased confidence, appear to outweigh the costs. When advanced economies begin to normalize monetary policy, the best defence for EMEs against any potential instability is likely to be further strengthening of their macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, F42
Credit Market Frictions and Sudden Stops Staff Working Paper 2014-49 Yuko Imura Financial crises in emerging economies in the 1980s and 1990s often entailed abrupt declines in foreign capital inflows, improvements in trade balance, and large declines in output and total factor productivity (TFP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, G, G0, G01
Labour Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing Staff Working Paper 2014-47 Serdar Kabaca This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labour income share fluctuations in emerging-market economies and proposing an explanation for them. Time-series data indicate that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labour share over the business cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E25, E4, E44, F, F4, F41
Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts? Staff Working Paper 2014-46 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Thomas K. Lee The answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts depends on the objective. The approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q43
International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada Staff Working Paper 2014-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Abeer Reza, Kristina Hess The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F42, F44