What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13
Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate Staff Working Paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33
December 15, 2016 Toward More Resilient Markets: Over-the-Counter Derivatives Reform in Canada Financial System Review - December 2016 Michael Mueller, André Usche In Toward More Resilient Markets: Over-the-Counter Derivatives Reform in Canada, Michael Mueller and André Usche show that the implementation of derivatives market reforms in Canada is well under way and has lessened vulnerabilities. But accompanying changes to market structure have both positive and negative effects that require ongoing attention from authorities. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G15, G2, G28
Options Decimalization Staff Working Paper 2016-57 Faith Chin, Corey Garriott We document the outcome of an options decimalization pilot on Canada’s derivatives exchange. Decimalization improves measures of liquidity and price efficiency. The impact differs by the moneyness of an option and is greatest for out-of-the-money options. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
Bank Screening Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2016-56 Thibaut Duprey Production efficiency and financial stability do not necessarily go hand in hand. With heterogeneity in banks’ abilities to screen borrowers, the market for loans becomes segmented and a self-competition mechanism arises. When heterogeneity increases, the intensive and extensive margins have opposite effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G21, L, L1, L13
Managing Risk Taking with Interest Rate Policy and Macroprudential Regulations Staff Working Paper 2016-47 Simona Cociuba, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt We develop a model in which a financial intermediary’s investment in risky assets—risk taking—is excessive due to limited liability and deposit insurance and characterize the policy tools that implement efficient risk taking. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G1, G11, G18
Using Speed and Credit Limits to Address the Procyclicality of Initial Margin at Central Counterparties Staff Discussion Paper 2016-18 Nikil Chande, Nicholas Labelle This paper proposes a practical approach to address the procyclicality of initial margin at central counterparties (CCPs) that can work even in periods of extreme stress. The approach allows CCPs to limit the speed of margin increases resulting from spikes in market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1
Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits Staff Discussion Paper 2016-17 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Tamon Takamura This note examines the merits of monetary policy adjustments in response to financial stability concerns, taking into account changes in the state of knowledge since the renewal of the inflation-targeting agreement in 2011. A key financial system vulnerability in Canada is elevated household indebtedness: as more and more households are nearing their debt-capacity limits, the likelihood and severity of a large negative correction in housing markets are also increasing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G18
Are Counterparty Arrangements in Reinsurance a Threat to Financial Stability? Staff Working Paper 2016-39 Matt Davison, Darrell Leadbetter, Bin Lu, Jane Voll Interconnectedness among insurers and reinsurers at a global level is not well understood and may pose a significant risk to the sector, with implications for the macroeconomy. Models of the complex interactions among reinsurers and with other participants in the financial system and the real economy are at a very early stage of development. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G10, G15, G18, G2, G22, G28