What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions? Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2019-31 Ugochi Emenogu, Leo Michelis Financial frictions affect how much consumers spend on durable and non-durable goods. Borrowers can face both loan-to-value (LTV) constraints and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52
Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures Staff Analytical Note 2019-26 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maxime Leboeuf Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12
A Tale of Two Countries: Cash Demand in Canada and Sweden Staff Discussion Paper 2019-7 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Björn Segendorf Cash use for payments has been steadily decreasing in many countries, including Canada and Sweden. This might suggest an evolution toward a cashless society. But in Canada, cash in circulation relative to GDP has been stable for decades and has even increased in recent years. By contrast, the cash-to-GDP ratio in Sweden has been falling steadily. What has caused this difference? Are there lessons to be learned from comparing the Canadian and Swedish experiences? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5
Explaining Unusual Cash Patterns in 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2019-22 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Jozsef Molnar, Gradon Nicholls There was an unusually large decline of bank notes in circulation in October 2018. Some have argued that this was due to the legalization of cannabis in Canada in mid-October. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58
Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches Staff Working Paper 2019-25 Jonathan Swarbrick We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
Privacy as a Public Good: A Case for Electronic Cash Staff Working Paper 2019-24 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt Cash gives users a high level of privacy when making payments, but the use of cash to make payments is declining. People increasingly use debit cards, credit cards or other methods to pay. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28
The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development Staff Analytical Note 2019-21 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Amy (Qijia) Li The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Inflation targets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58
Assessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System Staff Analytical Note 2019-16 Charles Gaa, Xuezhi Liu, Cameron MacDonald, Xiangjin Shen The stability of the Canadian financial system, as well as its ability to support the Canadian economy, depends on the ability of financial institutions to absorb and manage major shocks. This is especially true for large banks, which perform services essential to the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update Staff Analytical Note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41