Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design Staff Working Paper 2019-30 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Brent Hickman, Eric Richert Bank resolution is costly. In the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) typically resolves failing banks by auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, D, D4, D44, G, G2, G21
Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies Staff Discussion Paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E3, E31, E32
The Formation of House Price Expectations in Canada: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment Staff Analytical Note 2019-24 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete We conduct a randomized information experiment leveraging the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We provide causal evidence that respondents revise both their short- and medium-term expectations of future house price growth in a way that is consistent with observed short-term momentum in house prices. However, empirically, house price growth tends to revert to its mean in the medium term. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, R, R2, R21
Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection Staff Working Paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries, Laurens de Haan The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58
Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments Staff Working Paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle, Bruce McGough Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D84, E
An Application of Shapley Value Cost Allocation to Liquidity Savings Mechanisms Staff Working Paper 2019-26 Rodney J. Garratt Liquidity demands in real-time gross settlement payment systems can be enormous. To reduce the liquidity requirement, central banks around the world have implemented liquidity savings mechanisms (LSMs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58
How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43
Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments Staff Working Paper 2019-21 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E5, E52
Online Job Seekers in Canada: What Can We Learn from Bing Job Queries? Staff Analytical Note 2019-18 André Binette, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Nicholas Curtis, Gabriela Galassi, Scott Counts, Justin Cranshaw Labour markets in Canada and around the world are evolving rapidly with the digital economy. Traditional data are adapting gradually but are not yet able to provide timely information on this evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C8, C80, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21
Assessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System Staff Analytical Note 2019-16 Charles Gaa, Xuezhi Liu, Cameron MacDonald, Xiangjin Shen The stability of the Canadian financial system, as well as its ability to support the Canadian economy, depends on the ability of financial institutions to absorb and manage major shocks. This is especially true for large banks, which perform services essential to the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21