Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution Staff Working Paper 2021-24 Francois-Michel Boire, Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E5, E52, E6, E62
May 25, 2021 CARR Meeting (May 25, 2021) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown? Staff Analytical Note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stephanie Houle Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33, O4, O5, O51
May 21, 2021 Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, March 2021 Geneviève Vallée In the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions allowed households to defer payments on a range of loans. With most of these deferrals having expired, we present updated details of how these loans have performed through to March 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates
May 21, 2021 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2021 Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2021 - For the period ended March 31, 2021 Content Type(s): Publications, Quarterly Financial Report
May 20, 2021 Release of the Financial System Review Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Climate change, Cyber security, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments
May 20, 2021 Financial System Review Summary—2021 Tiff Macklem, Timothy Lane, Lawrence L. Schembri, Paul Beaudry, Toni Gravelle The Canadian financial system proved resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic—thanks to strong risk management and unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, R, R2, R21, R3, R31