Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated? Staff Analytical Note 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Jun Yang This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
Quantitative Easing and Long‐Term Yields in Small Open Economies Staff Working Paper 2017-26 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Maral Shamloo We compare the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12
June 28, 2017 Markets Calling: Intelligence Gathering at the Bank of Canada Remarks Lynn Patterson CFA Society Calgary Calgary, Alberta Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses how the Bank gathers financial market intelligence and what it is learning. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments
What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2017-9 Christopher S. Sutherland The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this phenomenon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F36, G, G1, G14, G15, G2, G21
June 8, 2017 Using Market-Based Indicators to Assess Banking System Resilience Financial System Review - June 2017 Cameron MacDonald, Maarten van Oordt This report reviews the use of quantitative tools to gauge market participants’ assessment of banking system resilience. These measures complement traditional balance-sheet metrics and suggest that markets consider large Canadian banks to be better placed to weather adverse shocks than banks in other advanced economies. Compared with regulatory capital ratios, however, the measures suggest less improvement in banking system resilience since the pre-crisis period. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G21
May 25, 2017 Upgrading the Payments Grid: The Payoffs Are Greater Than You Think Remarks Sylvain Leduc Payments Canada Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses how upgrading Canada’s core payment systems will contribute to financial stability and help the Bank keep inflation on target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems
May 11, 2017 The Life Cycle of Government of Canada Bonds in Core Funding Markets Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor Data on the use of government securities in the repo, securities lending and cash markets suggest there are bond market clienteles in Canada. Shorter-term bonds are more prevalent in the repo market, while longer-maturity securities are more active in the securities lending market—consistent with the preferred habitat hypothesis. These results could help design better debt-management strategies and more-effective policies to maintain well-functioning financial markets. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G23
May 11, 2017 Wholesale Funding of the Big Six Canadian Banks Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Matthieu Truno, Andriy Stolyarov, Danny Auger, Michel Assaf The Big Six Canadian banks are a dominant component of the Canadian financial system. How they finance their business activities is fundamental to how effective they are. Retail and commercial deposits along with wholesale funding represent the two major sources of funds for Canadian banks. What wholesale funding instruments do the Big Six banks use? How do they choose between different funding sources, funding strategies and why? How have banks changed their funding mix since the 2007–09 global financial crisis? Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G12, G15, G2, G20, G21, G28, O, O1, O16
Constrained Efficiency with Adverse Selection and Directed Search Staff Working Paper 2017-15 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Constrained efficient allocation (CE) is characterized in a model of adverse selection and directed search (Guerrieri, Shimer, and Wright (2010)). CE is defined to be the allocation that maximizes welfare, the ex-ante utility of all agents, subject to the frictions of the environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E2, E24, G, G1, J, J3, J31, J6, J64