April 25, 2018 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be back before you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. When we were last here at the beginning of November, we saw signs that the Canadian economy was moderating after an […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments
April 23, 2018 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be with you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. At the time of our last appearance in October, we saw signs that the Canadian economy was moderating after an exceptionally strong […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments
State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models Staff Working Paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53
Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff Working Paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37
February 15, 2018 Anchoring Expectations: Canada’s Approach to Price Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Manitoba Association for Business Economists Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri examines the success of the Bank’s monetary policy framework and explains the review being undertaken before its renewal in 2021. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature Staff Analytical Note 2018-3 Renaud St-Cyr The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32
Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices Staff Discussion Paper 2017-12 Rose Cunningham, Min Jae Kim, Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F3, F31, F4, F41
November 7, 2017 Understanding Inflation: Getting Back to Basics Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Montréal and Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how recent weak inflation in Canada and other economies can be explained by fundamental factors. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature Staff Analytical Note 2017-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Alexa Evans, Subrata Sarker, Lena Suchanek In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L8, L81, O, O3, O33
November 1, 2017 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be back before you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. When we were last here in April, we were celebrating the fact that we had upgraded our economic forecast following a […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet