November 15, 2012 Monetary Policy and the Risk-Taking Channel: Insights from the Lending Behaviour of Banks Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2012 Teodora Paligorova, Jesus Sierra The financial crisis of 2007-09 and the subsequent extended period of historically low real interest rates have revived the question of whether economic agents are willing to take on more risk when interest rates remain low for a prolonged time period. This increased appetite for risk, which causes economic agents to search for investment assets and strategies that generate higher investment returns, has been called the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Recent academic research on banks suggests that lending policies in times of low interest rates can be consistent with the existence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Europe, South America, the United States and Canada. Specifically, studies find that the terms of loans to risky borrowers become less stringent in periods of low interest rates. This risk-taking channel may amplify the effects of traditional transmission mechanisms, resulting in the creation of excessive credit. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21
Efficiency and Bargaining Power in the Interbank Loan Market Staff Working Paper 2012-29 Jason Allen, James Chapman, Federico Echenique, Matthew Shum Using detailed loan transactions-level data we examine the efficiency of an overnight interbank lending market, and the bargaining power of its participants. Our analysis relies on the equilibrium concept of the core, which imposes a set of no-arbitrage conditions on trades in the market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C7, C71, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound Staff Working Paper 2012-21 Christiane Baumeister, Luca Benati We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58
May 17, 2012 Inflation Targeting: The Recent International Experience Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Robert Lavigne, Rhys R. Mendes, Subrata Sarker In the years since the 2006 renewal of Canada’s inflation-control agreement, monetary policy regimes have faced significant shocks, including the global economic and financial crisis. This article reviews the recent experience with inflation targeting, including the debate about the appropriate role of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability. In the aftermath of the crisis, both […] Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Credibility, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
Central Bank Communication or the Media’s Interpretation: What Moves Markets? Staff Working Paper 2012-9 Scott Hendry The goal of this paper is to investigate what type of information from Bank of Canada communication statements or the market commentary based on these statements has a significant effect on the volatility or level of returns in a short-term interest rate market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14
Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada Staff Working Paper 2011-17 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Jakub Kastl This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G28
Text Mining and the Information Content of Bank of Canada Communications Staff Working Paper 2010-31 Scott Hendry, Alison Madeley This paper uses Latent Semantic Analysis to extract information from Bank of Canada communication statements and investigates what type of information affects returns and volatility in short-term as well as long-term interest rate markets over the 2002-2008 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14
Has the Inclusion of Forward-Looking Statements in Monetary Policy Communications Made the Bank of Canada More Transparent? Staff Discussion Paper 2010-15 Christine Fay, Toni Gravelle To investigate the extent to which the transparency of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy has improved, the authors examine empirically – over the period 30 October 2000 to 31 May 2007 – the reaction of Canadian financial markets to official Bank communications, and in particular their reaction to the recent inclusion of forward-looking policy-rate guidance in these communications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
An Assessment of the Bank of Canada's Term PRA Facility Staff Working Paper 2010-20 Emanuella Enenajor, Alex Sebastian, Jonathan Witmer This paper empirically assesses the effectiveness of the Bank of Canada's term Purchase and Resale Agreement (PRA) facility in reducing short-term bank funding pressures, as measured by the CDOR-OIS spread. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G12, G18
The Power of Many: Assessing the Economic Impact of the Global Fiscal Stimulus Staff Discussion Paper 2010-1 Carlos De Resende, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden The Bank of Canada Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM) is used to examine the effect of various types of discretionary fiscal policies on different regions of the globe. The BoC-GEM is a microfounded dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium global model with six regions, multiple sectors, and international linkages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E63, F, F4, F42