What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2017-9 Christopher S. Sutherland The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this phenomenon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F36, G, G1, G14, G15, G2, G21
May 11, 2017 Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Perspective of a Small Open Economy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Lena Suchanek, Jing Yang How do unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing and negative interest rates affect domestic financial conditions and the broader economy in small open econo-mies, such as Canada? These policies are effective in depreciating the exchange rate in small open economies, while lower interest rates are also passed through to the economy, albeit only partially. When conventional monetary policy is close to its limits, fiscal policy may be a more important complement to monetary policy in a small economy, particularly if global demand for safe assets compresses long-term interest rates. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65
May 4, 2017 Canada and Mexico: Common Issues in Uncommon Times Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CanCham México and Club de Industriales Mexico City, Mexico Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how shared economic traits leave Canada and Mexico well placed to face global challenges. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
Repo Market Functioning when the Interest Rate Is Low or Negative Staff Discussion Paper 2017-3 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Hately, Adrian Walton This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G10, G12
What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13
Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps Staff Analytical Note 2016-16 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43
October 19, 2016 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments
A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
September 20, 2016 Living with Lower for Longer Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Association des économistes québécois, the Cercle finance du Québec and CFA Québec Québec, Québec Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about the adjustments that savers and companies need to make in response to low interest rates, and economic policies that can help. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Potential output, Trade integration