2018 Merchant Acceptance Survey Staff Analytical Note 2019-31 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson In 2015, the Bank of Canada surveyed merchants and found that cash was nearly universally accepted (Fung, Huynh and Kosse 2017). Since 2015, retail payments in Canada have become increasingly digitalized, as many Canadians have adopted digital payment innovations like contactless cards and Interac e-Transfer. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2
Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns Staff Working Paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12
What Do Survey Data Tell Us About US Businesses? Staff Working Paper 2019-45 Anmol Bhandari, Serdar Birinci, Ellen McGrattan, Kurt See This paper examines the reliability of survey data on business incomes, valuations, and rates of return, which are key inputs for studies of wealth inequality and entrepreneurial choice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E2, E22, H, H2, H25
Interconnected Banks and Systemically Important Exposures Staff Working Paper 2019-44 Alan Roncoroni, Stefano Battiston, Marco D’Errico, Grzegorz Halaj, Christoffer Kok How do banks' interconnections in the euro area contribute to the vulnerability of the banking system? We study both the direct interconnections (banks lend to each other) and the indirect interconnections (banks are exposed to similar sectors of the economy). These complex linkages make the banking system more vulnerable to contagion risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G15, G2, G21
Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution Staff Discussion Paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.” Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33
2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage Staff Discussion Paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51
The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption Staff Working Paper 2019-35 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger This paper presents a structural framework of the global oil market that relies on information on global fuel consumption to identify flow demand for oil. We show that under mild identifying assumptions, data on global fuel consumption help to provide comparatively sharp insights on elasticities and other key structural parameters of the global oil market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L7, L71, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
Explaining the Interplay Between Merchant Acceptance and Consumer Adoption in Two-Sided Markets for Payment Methods Staff Working Paper 2019-32 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov Recent consumer and merchant surveys show a decrease in the use of cash at the point of sale. Increasingly, consumers and merchants have access to a growing array of payment innovations as substitutes for cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L1, L13, L15, L8, L81, L9, L96
Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design Staff Working Paper 2019-30 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Brent Hickman, Eric Richert Bank resolution is costly. In the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) typically resolves failing banks by auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, D, D4, D44, G, G2, G21
Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies Staff Discussion Paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E3, E31, E32