January 17, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2021 This survey took place in November 2021 before the Omicron variant of COVID-19 began spreading broadly in Canada. In December, the number of COVID-19 cases rose dramatically and governments began to reimpose containment measures. Many Canadians think inflation will be high over the next two years because of supply disruptions caused by the pandemic. They are more concerned about inflation now than they were before the pandemic and believe it has become more difficult to control. However, near-term inflation expectations are not feeding into expectations for wage growth or longer-term inflation. Showing confidence in the labour market, workers are more likely than ever to want to change jobs. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12
January 14, 2022 Bank of Canada/OSFI pilot helps Canadian financial sector assess climate change risks Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions today released the results of a pilot project on climate scenario analysis. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases Topic(s): Climate change
January 14, 2022 Assessing climate change risks to our financial system Ensuring the stability and efficiency of the financial system is a key part of our work at the Bank of Canada. This includes analyzing structural changes that affect the economy—like climate change. These changes could increase vulnerabilities to the financial system. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles
January 14, 2022 Using Scenario Analysis to Assess Climate Transition Risk Final Report of the BoC-OSFI Climate Scenario Analysis Pilot
Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods Technical Report No. 120 Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Craig Logan, Miguel Molico, Xiangjin Shen, Marie-Christine Tremblay A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C83, G, G1, G3, G32
January 14, 2022 Climate transition scenario data In November 2020, the Bank of Canada launched a pilot project with the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions aimed at better understanding risks to the economy and the financial system related to climate change. Part of this work included developing a set of Canada-relevant climate transition scenarios that explore pathways consistent with achieving certain climate targets.
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Erik Ens, Olivier Gervais, Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Serdar Kabaca, Miguel Molico, Sergey Paltsev, Alex Proulx, Argyn Toktamyssov Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q5, Q54
January 13, 2022 Notice of memorandum of understanding between the Autorité des marchés financiers, the British Columbia Securities Commission, the Ontario Securities Commission and the Bank of Canada In support of its mandate as the resolution authority for Canadian financial market infrastructures (FMIs), the Bank of Canada has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Autorité des marchés financiers, the British Columbia Securities Commission and the Ontario Securities Commission. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices