July 13, 2022 Financial Post Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of CanadaInterview with The Financial Post Content Type(s): Press, Media activities
July 13, 2022 Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 100 basis points, continues quantitative tightening Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 2½%, with the Bank Rate at 2¾% and the deposit rate at 2½%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
July 13, 2022 Monetary Policy Report – July 2022 The Canadian economy is now clearly in excess demand, and inflation is high and broadening. The Bank is projecting inflation to decline to about 3% by the end of 2023, and to return to the 2% target by the end of 2024. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
July 4, 2022 Household differences and why they matter Sharon Kozicki Differences in income, wealth and debt across households are important—for the economy, for the health of the financial system and for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models Staff Working Paper 2022-31 Xiangjin Shen, Iskander Karibzhanov, Hiroki Tsurumi, Shiliang Li We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C3, C35, C5, C51, C6, C63, D, D1
July 4, 2022 Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2022 Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2022, along with those from the April, May and June 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys, suggest that capacity pressures remain elevated and expectations of significant price increases continue to be widespread. Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates as signs of greater uncertainty emerge. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
July 4, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2022 This survey took place between April 28 and May 13, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in June. Consumers’ expectations for inflation have risen, alongside concerns about prices for food, gas and rent. Short-term expectations are at record-high levels. Long-term inflation expectations increased significantly in the second quarter of 2022, returning to the levels they were at before the COVID-19 pandemic. Most people believe the Bank of Canada can achieve its inflation target. However, some think the process of bringing inflation down will be difficult for the Bank of Canada. Expectations for higher inflation and rising interest rates weigh on consumer confidence. People expect that credit conditions will worsen and wage growth will not keep up with inflation. Flexible work arrangements could attract more people into the labour force. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations