December 5, 2019 Canadian economy resilient despite global uncertainty Speech summary Timothy Lane Ottawa Board of Trade and Ottawa Business Journal Ottawa, Ontario Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Timothy Lane explained that Canada’s economy remains resilient. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions? Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
September 5, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Inflation in Canada—Well Behaved and Well Controlled Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Halifax Regional Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the behaviour of inflation in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
September 5, 2019 Canadian economy resilient even as global outlook worsens Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discussed the key points Governing Council considered in their decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68
May 30, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Investing in Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
May 30, 2019 Economic progress depends on business investment Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32
Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data Staff Analytical Note 2019-14 Leila Al-Mqbali, Olga Bilyk, Stefan Caputo, James Younker Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, G, G2, G21, G28
May 6, 2019 Risk Sharing, Flexibility and the Future of Mortgages Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Credit Union Association and Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba Governor Poloz talks about Canada’s housing market and how the mortgage market could evolve to give Canadians more choice, make the economy more flexible and lower the level of financial system risk. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial services, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration