Cyber Risk and Security Investment Staff Working Paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D7, D78, D8, D81, G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23
Fixed-income dealing and central bank interventions Staff Analytical Note 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We summarize the theoretical model of central bank asset purchases developed in Cimon and Walton (2022). The model helps us understand how asset purchases ease pressures on investment dealers to restore market conditions in a crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning Staff Working Paper 2022-29 Vladimir Skavysh, Sofia Priazhkina, Diego Guala, Thomas Bromley Using the quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we study whether quantum computing can improve the run time of economic applications and challenges in doing so. We apply the algorithm to two models: a stress testing bank model and a DSGE model solved with deep learning. We also present innovations in the algorithm and benchmark it to classical Monte Carlo. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C6, C61, C63, C68, C7, E, E1, E13, G, G1, G17, G2, G21
Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2022-28 Ugochi Emenogu, Brian Peterson This paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies when regulations are uneven across mortgage lender types. We look at credit tightening that results from macroprudential regulations and examine how much of it is counteracted by credit shifting to unregulated lenders. We also study the impact of monetary policy tightening when some lenders are unregulated. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E50, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G23, G28
Potential netting benefits from expanded central clearing in Canada’s fixed-income market Staff Analytical Note 2022-8 Jessie Ziqing Chen, Johannes Chen, Shamarthi Ghosh, Manu Pandey, Adrian Walton We assess whether more central clearing would enhance the resilience of Canadian fixed-income markets. Our analysis estimates the potential benefits of balance sheet netting under scenarios where central clearing is expanded to new participants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G29
Settlement Balances Deconstructed Staff Discussion Paper 2022-13 Parnell Chu, Grahame Johnson, Scott Kinnear, Karen McGuinness, Matthew McNeely Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, public interest in the Bank’s balance sheet and, more specifically, the size of settlement balances, has grown. This paper deconstructs the concept of settlement balances and provides some context on their history, current state and possible future evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E59, E6, G, G0, G01
How well can large banks in Canada withstand a severe economic downturn? Staff Analytical Note 2022-6 Andisheh (Andy) Danaee, Harsimran Grewal, Brad Howell, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Xuezhi Liu, Mayur Patel, Xiangjin Shen We examine the potential impacts of a severe economic shock on the resilience of major banks in Canada. We find these banks would suffer significant financial losses but nevertheless remain resilient. This underscores the role well-capitalized banks and sound underwriting practices play in supporting economic activity in a downturn. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E44, G, G1, G2, G21, G23
Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23, G24, G3, G32
Transmission of Cyber Risk Through the Canadian Wholesale Payment System Staff Working Paper 2022-23 Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu This paper studies how the impact of a cyber attack that paralyzes one or multiple banks' ability to send payments would transmit to other banks through the Canadian wholesale payment system. Based on historical payment data, we simulate a wide range of scenarios and evaluate the total payment disruption in the system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C49, E, E4, E42, E47, G, G2, G21
Expectation-Driven Term Structure of Equity and Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2022-21 Ming Zeng, Guihai Zhao Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of equilibrium asset pricing. This paper presents a new equilibrium model of subjective expectations to explain the joint historical dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12