The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations? Staff Working Paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65
September 20, 2022 Macroeconomics of the 2020s: What we’ve learned, and what’s to come Remarks Paul Beaudry University of Waterloo Faculty of Arts Distinguished Lecture in Economics Waterloo, Ontario Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the macroeconomic lessons we’ve learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, and what lies ahead to bring inflation back to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
September 20, 2022 Anatomy of a pandemic: Applying old lessons and learning from new ones Speech summary Paul Beaudry University of Waterloo Faculty of Arts Distinguished Lecture in Economics Waterloo, Ontario Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry describes how the lessons learned from previous economic crises helped central bankers during the global COVID-19 pandemic. He also talks about how managing inflation expectations can help bring inflation back to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data Staff Working Paper 2022-39 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Marianna Kudlyak Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, R, R2, R21, R3, R31
September 8, 2022 Getting inflation back to normal Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Speaking a day after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses where the economy stands and what the Bank is doing to get inflation back under control. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates
September 8, 2022 Economic progress report: Restoring price stability Remarks Carolyn Rogers Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers provides an economic update and discusses why the Bank is raising rates fast to tackle high inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation? Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31
July 4, 2022 Household differences and why they matter Sharon Kozicki Differences in income, wealth and debt across households are important—for the economy, for the health of the financial system and for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
June 2, 2022 Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments
June 2, 2022 Navigating high inflation Speech summary Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec On June 1, the Bank of Canada decided to increase its policy interest rate by half a percentage point. Speaking the next day, Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry explains why inflation has been higher than expected and what we are doing to get it back to our 2% target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments