Exchange Rates and Individual Good’s Price Misalignment: Some Preliminary Evidence of Long-Horizon Predictability Staff Discussion Paper 2011-8 Wei Dong, Deokwoo Nam When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F47
External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies Staff Discussion Paper 2011-5 Olivier Gervais, Lawrence L. Schembri, Lena Suchanek In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F4, F41
Financial Spillovers Across Countries: The Case of Canada and the United States Staff Discussion Paper 2011-1 Kimberly Beaton, Brigitte Desroches The authors investigate financial spillovers across countries with an emphasis on the effect of shocks to financial conditions in the United States on financial conditions and economic activity in Canada. These questions are addressed within a global vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E32, F, F3, F36, F4, F40
The Propagation of U.S. Shocks to Canada: Understanding the Role of Real-Financial Linkages Staff Working Paper 2010-40 Kimberly Beaton, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden This paper examines the transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks to Canada and, in particular, the role of financial frictions in affecting the transmission of these shocks. These questions are addressed within the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (de Resende et al. forthcoming), a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking sector and a detailed role for financial frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E27, E3, E32, F, F3, F36, F4, F40
Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence Using a New Index Staff Working Paper 2010-35 Gurnain Pasricha This paper finds a strong empirical link between domestic banking sector competitiveness and de facto international integration. De-facto international integration is measured through a new index of financial integration, which measures, for deviations from covered interest parity, the size of no-arbitrage bands and the speed of arbitrage outside the no-arbitrage band. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15, G2, G21
Composition of International Capital Flows: A Survey Staff Working Paper 2010-33 Koralai Kirabaeva, Assaf Razin We survey several key mechanisms that explain the composition of international capital flows: foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment and debt flows (bank loans and bonds). In particular, we focus on the following market frictions: asymmetric information in capital markets and exposure to liquidity shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, F, F2, F21, F3, F34
The Role of Expenditure Switching in the Global Imbalance Adjustment Staff Working Paper 2010-16 Wei Dong In theory, nominal exchange rate movements can lead to “expenditure switching” when they generate changes in the relative prices of goods across countries. This paper explores whether the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates has changed in the current episode of significant global imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4
International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia Staff Working Paper 2010-14 Jesus Sierra This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32, F34, G, G1, G11, G12, G15
Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing Staff Discussion Paper 2010-4 Kimberly Beaton, Carlos De Resende, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden The authors use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model, a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking system (the BoC-GEM-FIN), to study the evolution of global current account balances following the recent global financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, F, F0, F01, F3, F32
Alternative Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities Staff Working Paper 2010-9 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Maral Kichian Inflation-targeting central banks around the world often state their inflation objectives with regard to the consumer price index (CPI). Yet the literature on optimal monetary policy based on models with nominal rigidities and more than one sector suggests that CPI inflation is not always the best choice from a social welfare perspective. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, E52, F, F3, F4