Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks Staff Working Paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
Non-Bank Dealing and Liquidity Bifurcation in Fixed-Income Markets Staff Working Paper 2025-2 Michael Brolley, David Cimon We model non-bank entry into fixed-income markets and state-dependent liquidity. Non-bank financial institutions improve liquidity more during normal times than in stress. Banks may become less reliable to marginal clients, exacerbating the difference in liquidity between normal and stressed times. Central bank lending during stress may limit this harmful division. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, G21, G23, L, L1, L10, L13, L14
December 16, 2024 Lessons for the future Speech summary Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses what the Bank of Canada learned from the pandemic experience and outlines how the Bank is preparing for a more uncertain future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework
December 16, 2024 Delivering price stability: Learning from the past, preparing for the future Remarks Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem reflects on the lessons learned from the pandemic and its aftermath and outlines how the Bank is preparing for the challenges of the future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework
September 19, 2024 Monetary policy decision-making: Behind the scenes Remarks Nicolas Vincent Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce and Industry Sherbrooke, Quebec External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a behind the scenes look at the rigorous research, analysis and debate that go into every monetary policy decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission
September 19, 2024 Getting to a monetary policy decision Speech summary Nicolas Vincent Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce and Industry Sherbrooke, Quebec External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a behind-the-scenes look at how the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council arrives at its monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission
Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2024-30 Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman, Mike West We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53
Non-Parametric Identification and Testing of Quantal Response Equilibrium Staff Working Paper 2024-24 Johannes Hoelzemann, Ryan Webb, Erhao Xie We show that the utility function and the error distribution are non-parametrically over-identified under Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE). This leads to a simple test for QRE. We illustrate our method in a Monte Carlo exercise and a laboratory experiment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C57, C9, C92
June 13, 2024 Reviewing our pandemic actions Speech summary Sharon Kozicki Canadian Association for Business Economics Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about the importance of central bank transparency and accountability. She looks at the exceptional monetary policy measures the Bank of Canada used during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzes their effectiveness. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credibility, Economic models, Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Recent economic and financial developments
June 13, 2024 Exceptional policies for an exceptional time: From quantitative easing to quantitative tightening Remarks Sharon Kozicki Canadian Association of Business Economics Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses the use of exceptional monetary policy tools during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the Bank’s commitment to transparency and accountability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credibility, Economic models, Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Recent economic and financial developments