Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2024-40 James Cabral, Walter Steingress The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23, R3, R31
Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning Staff Discussion Paper 2023-21 Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac, Jing Yang We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Housing JEL Code(s): A, C, C4, C45, C5, C53, D, D2, R, R2, R3
Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth Staff Working Paper 2023-34 Elisa Giannone, Qi Li, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang We propose a model to understand low observed migration rates by considering the interaction between location and wealth decisions. We look at different policies and find that temporary moving vouchers only slightly increase welfare, while lower housing regulations can decrease the welfare gap by lowering house prices nationwide. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): G, G5, G51, R, R1, R12, R13, R2, R3, R31, R5, R52
Geographical and Cultural Proximity in Retail Banking Staff Working Paper 2023-2 Santiago Carbo-Valverde, Héctor Pérez Saiz, Hongyu Xiao This paper measures how both geographical and cultural proximity of bank branches affect household credit choice and pricing. For credit products that require high levels of ex-ante screening, we find that both proximities can complement each other in reducing the cost of providing soft information, thereby increasing credit access. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, G, G2, G20, G21, R, R2, R22, Z, Z1, Z10, Z13
November 22, 2022 Tracking the financial vulnerabilities of households and the housing market The Bank of Canada is publishing a new set of indicators of financial vulnerabilities. This will allow households, the private sector, financial authorities and governments to better understand and monitor the evolution of two key vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness and high house prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D8, D84, E, E5, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data Staff Working Paper 2022-39 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Marianna Kudlyak Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, R, R2, R21, R3, R31
Analyzing the house price boom in the suburbs of Canada’s major cities during the pandemic Staff Analytical Note 2022-7 Louis Morel We assess how location affects house prices in Canada. The gap in prices between suburbs and downtown was closing gradually before the pandemic. The gap has been closing faster since spring 2020. This finding reflects a shift in preferences toward more living space. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R23, R3, R32
Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers Staff Analytical Note 2022-1 Mikael Khan, Yang Xu We introduce a novel approach to categorize mortgaged homebuyers into first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors. We show how these groups contribute to activity in Canadian housing markets, and we analyze the differences in their demographic and financial characteristics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31
Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51, R, R2, R21
Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation Staff Working Paper 2021-28 Heng Chen, Matthew Strathearn, Marcel Voia The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, R, R2, R22