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173 Results

Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity

Staff Working Paper 2019-4 Randall Wright, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu
This paper studies dynamic general equilibrium models where firms trade capital in frictional markets. Gains from trade arise due to ex ante heterogeneity: some firms are better at investment, so they build capital in the primary market; others acquire it in the secondary market.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44

Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns

Staff Working Paper 2017-19 Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo, Barbara Sadaba
Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates.

Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?

Staff Working Paper 2003-43 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei
Recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded-in by government spending. This outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory, according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption.

The Case of Serial Disappointment

Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.

Competing Currencies in the Laboratory

Staff Working Paper 2017-53 Janet Hua Jiang, Cathy Zhang
We investigate competition between two intrinsically worthless currencies as a result of decentralized interactions between human subjects. We design a laboratory experiment based on a simple two-country, two-currency search model to study factors that affect circulation patterns and equilibrium selection.

Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki
Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52

How Banks Create Gridlock to Save Liquidity in Canada's Large Value Payment System

Staff Working Paper 2023-26 Rodney J. Garratt, Zhentong Lu, Phoebe Tian
We show how participants in Canada’s new high-value payment system save liquidity by exploiting the new gridlock resolution arrangement. The findings have important implications for the design of these systems and shed light on financial institutions’ liquidity preference.

Merchant Acceptance, Costs, and Perceptions of Retail Payments: A Canadian Survey

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-12 Carlos Arango, Varya Taylor
Using the results of a survey on accepted means of payment, the authors examine merchant preferences and perceptions of retail payment reliability, risk, and costs; the share of each type of payment method over total sales; and the costs involved in accepting payments.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, L, L2

Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound

In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis.
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