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329 Results

Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers

Staff working paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp
Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links.

Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment

Staff working paper 2018-6 Xiaoqing Zhou
The consumption boom-bust cycle in the 2000s coincided with large fluctuations in the volume of home equity borrowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I show that homeowners largely borrowed for residential investment and not consumption.

Central Bank Digital Currency and Transmission of Monetary Policy

Using a general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions, we explore whether introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) affects the transmission of monetary policy, and how the effects depend on CBDC design features. We also study whether paying interest on central bank liabilities is contractionary or expansionary.

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies

Staff working paper 2022-6 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Diego Perez
We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality.

Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey

Staff working paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang
We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey.

Unintended Consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program

Staff working paper 2024-11 Phoebe Tian, Chen Zheng
We investigate the unintended consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). Originally designed to help borrowers refinance after the 2008–09 global financial crisis, HARP inadvertently strengthened the market power of incumbent lenders by creating a cost advantage for them. Despite a 2013 policy rectifying this cost advantage, we still find significant welfare losses for borrowers.

Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share

Staff working paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short
Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions

Staff working paper 2023-48 Soyoung Lee
A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.

The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier?

Staff working paper 2018-59 Xiaodan Gao, Shaofeng Xu
We document countercyclical corporate saving behavior with the degree of countercyclicality varying nonmonotonically with firm size. We then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to explain the pattern and study its implications for business cycles.

Competition for Exclusivity and Customer Lock-in: Evidence from Copyright Enforcement in China

Staff working paper 2023-43 Youming Liu
This paper studies the music streaming industry and argues that having exclusive rights granted by copyright law drives firms to offer exclusive content to lock in customers. I employ theoretical and descriptive empirical analysis, along with a dynamic structural model, to support the argument and explore policies for improving competition.
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