(Un)Conventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Staff Working Paper 2023-6 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie We build a tractable New Keynesian model to study and compare four types of monetary and fiscal policy: policy rate adjustments, quantitative easing, lump-sum fiscal transfers and government spending. We find that tax-financed fiscal policy is more stimulative than debt-financed policy, and optimal policy coordination needs at least two of these four policy instruments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E6, E61, E62, E63
Natural Monopoly and Distorted Competition: Evidence from Unbundling Fiber-Optic Networks Staff Working Paper 2012-26 Naoaki Minamihashi Can regulation solve problems arising from a natural monopoly? This paper analyzes whether “unbundling,” referring to regulations that enforce sharing of natural monopolistic infrastructure, prevents entrants from building new infrastructure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): K, K2, K23, L, L4, L43, L9, L96
Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity Staff Working Paper 2021-30 Toni Ahnert, David Martinez-Miera How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21
Modelling Financial Instability: A Survey of the Literature Staff Working Paper 2002-12 Alexandra Lai The magnitude and frequency of recent financial crises underscore the importance of understanding financial instability for the purpose of crisis prevention and crisis management. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2, G20, G21, G28
Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates? Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Working Time over the 20th Century Staff Working Paper 2006-18 Alexander Ueberfeldt From 1870 to 2000, the workweek length of employed persons decreased by 41 per cent in industrialized countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E24, O, O1, O11
Information, Risk Sharing and Incentives in Agency Problems Staff Working Paper 2015-7 Jia Xie This paper studies the use of information for incentives and risk sharing in agency problems. When the principal is risk neutral or the outcome is contractible, risk sharing is unnecessary or completely taken care of by a contract on the outcome. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8
How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle? Staff Working Paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J6, J64, J65
Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2023-17 Aubhik Khan, Soyoung Lee We examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. Firms’ debt adjustment makes recessions deeper but makes expansions gradual. In particular, when the aggregate business leverage is ten percentage points above average, the half-life of the recovery doubles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E3, E30, E32
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43