January 30, 2006 Annual Report 2005 In 2005, the Bank of Canada celebrated its 70th anniversary. Since the Bank opened its doors in March 1935, it has evolved into a national institution at the heart of Canada’s economy. We had a lot to celebrate in 2005—particularly our progress over the past 70 yearsand our continuing contribution to the economic and financial well-being of Canadians. Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
How to Improve Inflation Targeting at the Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-23 Nicholas Rowe This paper shows that if the Bank of Canada is optimally adjusting its monetary policy instrument in response to inflation indicators to target 2 per cent inflation at a two-year horizon, then deviations of inflation from 2 per cent represent the Bank's forecast errors, and should be uncorrelated with its information set, which includes two-year lagged values of the instrument and the indicators. Positive or negative correlations are evidence of systematic errors in monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5
Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment Staff Working Paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G3
Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related? Staff Working Paper 2006-24 Partha Chatterjee, Malik Shukayev The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32
A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2013-10 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12
Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures Staff Working Paper 2024-19 Grzegorz Halaj, Ruben Hipp We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14
A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science Staff Working Paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71
Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects Staff Working Paper 2019-16 Kerem Tuzcuoglu Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, C5, C58, G, G2, G24
Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions Staff Working Paper 2017-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large—a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Equilibrium in Two-Sided Markets for Payments: Consumer Awareness and the Welfare Cost of the Interchange Fee Staff Working Paper 2022-15 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov We construct and estimate a structural two-stage model of equilibrium in a market for payments in order to quantify the network externalities and identify the main determinants of consumer and merchant decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14