To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse Staff working paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks Staff working paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, E, E3, E37, E4, E47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Volatility Risk and Economic Welfare Staff working paper 2017-20 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff working paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Consumer Search, Productivity Heterogeneity, Prices, Markups, and Pass-through: Theory and Estimation Staff working paper 2024-50 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham We develop and estimate a search model in which identical consumers trade with price-setting firms that differ in productivity. We use the estimated model to characterize the qualitative and quantitative differences in prices and markups across firms. We explore how individual firms respond to changes in cost and demand and how they pass these through to their prices and markup. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, L, L1, L16 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
November 11, 2008 The Role of Dealers in Providing Interday Liquidity in the Canadian-Dollar Market Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Chris D'Souza Access to information about the future direction of the exchange rate can be extremely valuable in the foreign exchange market. Evidence presented in this article suggests that Canadian dealers are more likely to provide interday liquidity to foreign, rather than Canadian, financial customers, since foreign financial flows can be more informative about future movements in the exchange rate. The author reveals a statistical relationship between the supply of liquidity provided by non-financial firms and that provided by dealing institutions across time, and across markets, and suggests that the relationship between the positions of commercial clients and market-makers, and the role played by dealers in interday liquidity provision, has been understated in the market microstructure literature. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity Staff working paper 2021-30 Toni Ahnert, David Martinez-Miera How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models? Staff working paper 2017-21 Vadym Lepetyuk, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, C68, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Mandatory Retention Rules and Bank Risk Staff working paper 2023-3 Yuteng Cheng This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the unintended consequences of mandatory retention rules in securitization. It proposes a novel model showing that while retention strengthens monitoring, it may also encourage banks to shift risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies Staff working paper 2021-6 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong Digital currencies store balances in anonymous electronic addresses. This paper analyzes the trade-offs between the safety and convenience of aggregating balances in addresses, electronic wallets and banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures