Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates? Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Money and Price Posting under Private Information Staff Working Paper 2011-22 Mei Dong, Janet Hua Jiang We study price posting with undirected search in a search-theoretic monetary model with divisible money and divisible goods. Ex ante homogeneous buyers experience match specific preference shocks in bilateral trades. The shocks follow a continuous distribution and the realization of the shocks is private information. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E3, E31
Natural Monopoly and Distorted Competition: Evidence from Unbundling Fiber-Optic Networks Staff Working Paper 2012-26 Naoaki Minamihashi Can regulation solve problems arising from a natural monopoly? This paper analyzes whether “unbundling,” referring to regulations that enforce sharing of natural monopolistic infrastructure, prevents entrants from building new infrastructure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): K, K2, K23, L, L4, L43, L9, L96
Money and Costly Credit Staff Working Paper 2011-7 Mei Dong I study an economy in which money and credit coexist as means of payment and the settlement of credit requires money. The model extends recent developments in microfounded monetary theory to address the choice of payment methods and the effects of inflation. Whether a buyer uses money or credit depends on the fixed cost of credit and the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E50
Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules Staff Working Paper 2013-8 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov Using BoC-GEM-Fin, a large-scale DSGE model with real, nominal and financial frictions featuring a banking sector, we explore the macroeconomic implications of various types of countercyclical bank capital regulations. Results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements have a significant stabilizing effect on key macroeconomic variables, but mostly after financial shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2
Information, Risk Sharing and Incentives in Agency Problems Staff Working Paper 2015-7 Jia Xie This paper studies the use of information for incentives and risk sharing in agency problems. When the principal is risk neutral or the outcome is contractible, risk sharing is unnecessary or completely taken care of by a contract on the outcome. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8
How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle? Staff Working Paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J6, J64, J65
Working Time over the 20th Century Staff Working Paper 2006-18 Alexander Ueberfeldt From 1870 to 2000, the workweek length of employed persons decreased by 41 per cent in industrialized countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E24, O, O1, O11
Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2023-17 Aubhik Khan, Soyoung Lee We examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. Firms’ debt adjustment makes recessions deeper but makes expansions gradual. In particular, when the aggregate business leverage is ten percentage points above average, the half-life of the recovery doubles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E3, E30, E32
Real and Nominal Frictions within the Firm: How Lumpy Investment Matters for Price Adjustment Staff Working Paper 2009-36 Michael K. Johnston Real rigidities are an important feature of modern sticky price models and are policy-relevant because of their welfare consequences, but cannot be structurally identified from time series. I evaluate the plausibility of capital specificity as a source of real rigidities using a two-dimensional generalized (s,S) model calibrated to micro evidence. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, E3, E31