Provincial Credit Ratings in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis Staff Working Paper 1996-6 Stella Cheung The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): H, H6, H63
Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2005-6 Gino Cateau Policy-makers in the United States over the past 15 to 20 years seem to have been cautious in setting policy: empirical estimates of monetary policy rules such as Taylor's (1993) rule are much less aggressive than those derived from optimizing models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E5, E58
Money Demand and Economic Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2004-25 Joseph Atta-Mensah The author examines the impact of economic uncertainty on the demand for money. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E50
Does Indexation Bias the Estimated Frequency of Price Adjustment? Staff Working Paper 2007-15 Maral Kichian, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We assess the implications of price indexation for estimated frequency of price adjustment in sticky price models of business cycles. These models predominantly assume that non-reoptimized prices are indexed to lagged or average inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
Managing GDP Tail Risk Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01
What Affects MFP in the Long-Run? Evidence from Canadian Industries Staff Working Paper 2008-4 Danny Leung, Yi Zheng In this paper we explore variables that may have an impact on multifactor productivity (MFP) in the long-run using the KLEMS database for Canada. We estimate a dynamic heterogeneous panel error-correction model of twelve 2-digit level industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, D, D2, D24, O, O3, O30
Alternative Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities Staff Working Paper 2010-9 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Maral Kichian Inflation-targeting central banks around the world often state their inflation objectives with regard to the consumer price index (CPI). Yet the literature on optimal monetary policy based on models with nominal rigidities and more than one sector suggests that CPI inflation is not always the best choice from a social welfare perspective. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, E52, F, F3, F4
Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada? Staff Working Paper 2005-29 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei Several empirical studies suggest that exchange rate pass-through has declined in recent years in industrialized countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4
A Structural VAR Approach to the Intertemporal Model of the Current Account Staff Working Paper 2003-42 Takashi Kano The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to country-specific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight Staff Working Paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7