Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation Staff working paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Calculating Effective Degrees of Freedom for Forecast Combinations and Ensemble Models Staff discussion paper 2022-19 James Younker This paper derives a calculation for the effective degrees of freedom of a forecast combination under a set of general conditions for linear models. Computing effective degrees of freedom shows that the complexity cost of a forecast combination is driven by the parameters in the weighting scheme and the weighted average of parameters in the auxiliary models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C02, C1, C13, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
December 31, 2014 Summary of Government of Canada - Outstanding as at 31 December 2014 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Securities and loans
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology, Assumptions and Sources Technical report No. 117 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
December 31, 2013 Summary of Government of Canada - Outstanding as at 31 December 2013 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Securities and loans
Does Outward Foreign Investment Matter for Canadian Productivity? Evidence from Greenfield Investments Staff working paper 2018-31 Naveen Rai, Lena Suchanek, Maria Bernier This paper seeks to understand how outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affects the productivity of Canadian firms. We estimate the impact of outward greenfield investment on measures of firm-level productivity using FDI data from roughly 2,000 Canadian firms and more than 4,000 outward FDI projects over the 2003–14 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F2, F21, F23 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
June 9, 2022 Financial System Review—2022 Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers, Timothy Lane, Lawrence L. Schembri, Paul Beaudry, Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki The Canadian financial system remains resilient, but vulnerabilities have become more complex and risks have grown. The Bank is carefully watching households’ high levels of mortgage debt, as well as the risks associated with a price correction in Canada’s housing market. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Following the Money: Evidence for the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing Staff working paper 2018-33 Itay Goldstein, Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang Recent research suggests that quantitative easing (QE) may affect a broad range of asset prices through a portfolio balance channel. Using novel security-level holding data of individual US mutual funds, we establish evidence that portfolio rebalancing occurred both within and across funds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Central Bank Crisis Interventions and the Term Structure of Market Fear Staff working paper 2026-17 Mattia Bevilacqua, Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann, Jean-Pierre Zigrand How do central bank crisis interventions calm market fears? Using options data, we measure the perceived risk of large asset price drops across horizons from two weeks to ten years. Studying the Fed's response to the 2020 turmoil, we find asset purchases reduce short-term fears while interest rate actions shape long-term expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places Staff working paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting