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257 Results

The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending

This paper looks at the role mortgage brokers play in helping borrowers generate quotes and qualify for credit. We find that, on average, borrowers that engage with a mortgage broker pay lower interest rates. However, in about 15% of cases, borrowers are steered towards longer amortizing mortgages than they would have chosen absent a broker. Since mortgages with longer amortization have higher total interest costs over the entire life of the mortgage, this steering is expensive.

Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers

Staff working paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp
Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links.

Seeking Safety

Staff working paper 2018-41 Toni Ahnert, Enrico Perotti
The scale of safe assets suggests a structural demand for a safe wealth share beyond transaction and liquidity roles. We study how investors achieve a reference wealth level by combining self-insurance and contingent liquidation of investment. Intermediaries improve upon autarky, insuring investors with poor self-insurance and limiting liquidation.

Transaction Costs, the Value of Convenience, and the Cross-Section of Safe Asset Returns

We study the cross-section of equilibrium returns on safe assets using a tractable asset pricing model with a micro-founded demand for liquidity and multiple safe assets with heterogeneous transaction costs. We test the main predictions of our theory using a novel measure of relative (in)convenience yields in the US Treasury market.

Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations?

Staff working paper 2020-35 Narayan Bulusu
Central banks communicate the results of open market operations. This helps participants in financial markets more accurately estimate the prevailing demand and supply conditions in the market for overnight loans.

A Market-Based Approach to Reverse Stress Testing the Financial System

Staff working paper 2025-32 Javier Ojea Ferreiro
This article examines what market conditions lead to extreme losses in global financial systems. Using a reverse stress testing approach, it introduces two measures of systemic risk by starting from the tail losses and working backward to identify the events most closely associated with them.

A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

Staff working paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie
This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.

Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

Staff working paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song
We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms.

Consumer Search, Productivity Heterogeneity, Prices, Markups, and Pass-through: Theory and Estimation

Staff working paper 2024-50 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham
We develop and estimate a search model in which identical consumers trade with price-setting firms that differ in productivity. We use the estimated model to characterize the qualitative and quantitative differences in prices and markups across firms. We explore how individual firms respond to changes in cost and demand and how they pass these through to their prices and markup.

The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market

We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status.
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