Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market Staff working paper 2018-49 Lin Shao This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, O, O1, O17, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Dynamic Competition in Negotiated Price Markets Staff working paper 2020-22 Jason Allen, Shaoteng Li Repeated interactions between borrowers and lenders create the possibility of dynamic pricing: lenders compete aggressively with low prices to attract new borrowers and then raise their prices once borrowers have made a commitment. We find such pricing patterns in the Canadian mortgage market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit
Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey Staff working paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Retail payments
News-Driven International Credit Cycles Staff working paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Interpreting Volatility Shocks as Preference Shocks Staff working paper 2016-45 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the relationship between volatility shocks and preference shocks in an analytically tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. I show that there exists an explicit mapping between volatility shocks and preference shocks, and a rise in volatility generates the same impulse responses of macroeconomic aggregates as a negative preference shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Optimum Quantity of Central Bank Reserves Staff working paper 2025-15 Jonathan Witmer This paper analyzes the optimal quantity of central bank reserves in an economy where reserves and other financial assets provide liquidity benefits. Using a static model, I derive a constrained Friedman rule that characterizes the socially optimal level of reserves, demonstrating that this quantity is neither necessarily large nor small but depends on the marginal benefits of reserves relative to alternative safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions Staff working paper 2021-47 Soojin Jo, Lilia Karnizova Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q50, Q55 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change
The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending Staff working paper 2024-2 Phoebe Tian This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D86, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14, L2, L26 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-37 Yuko Imura, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on firms’ participation in exporting. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms make forward-looking decisions on whether to participate in the export market and prices are staggered across firms and time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F12, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Identification and Estimation of Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions with Unobserved Auction Heterogeneity Staff working paper 2016-23 Serafin Grundl, Yu Zhu This paper shows point identification in first-price auction models with risk aversion and unobserved auction heterogeneity by exploiting multiple bids from each auction and variation in the number of bidders. The required exclusion restriction is shown to be consistent with a large class of entry models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C57, D, D4, D44, L, L0, L00 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods