Asset Encumbrance, Bank Funding and Financial Fragility Staff working paper 2016-16 Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai, James Chapman, Toni Ahnert In this piece we show that a limit on the level of asset encumbrance and minimum capital requirements are effective tools for minimizing the incentive for banks to take excessive risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service Staff working paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design Staff working paper 2021-63 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Should a CBDC be more like cash or bank deposits? An interest-bearing, cash-like CBDC not only makes payments more efficient but also increases total demand. This has positive effects on other transactions, inducing more deposit taking and lending and, thus, bank intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Monetary Policy Transmission with Endogenous Central Bank Responses in TANK Staff working paper 2025-21 Lilia Maliar, Chris Naubert We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C62, C63, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects Staff working paper 2019-16 Kerem Tuzcuoglu Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, C5, C58, G, G2, G24 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Liquidation Mechanisms and Price Impacts in DeFi Staff working paper 2025-12 Phoebe Tian, Yu Zhu This paper theoretically and empirically examines the price impacts of liquidations in DeFi and how different liquidation mechanisms affect the price impacts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G2, G20, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff working paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
Estimating the Portfolio-Balance Effects of the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program Staff working paper 2024-34 Antonio Diez de los Rios Using a novel dynamic portfolio balance model of the yield curve for Government of Canada bonds, I find that the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Entry and Exit in Treasury Auctions Staff working paper 2024-29 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Eric Richert, Milena Wittwer This paper introduces and estimates a structural model of the Canadian primary market for government debt. We assess the role of dealer exit in this market as a key reason for increased, yet irregular, customer entry and quantify the benefits of greater customer competition against the costs of higher market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G1, G12, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market structure
Competition for Exclusivity and Customer Lock-in: Evidence from Copyright Enforcement in China Staff working paper 2023-43 Youming Liu This paper studies the music streaming industry and argues that having exclusive rights granted by copyright law drives firms to offer exclusive content to lock in customers. I employ theoretical and descriptive empirical analysis, along with a dynamic structural model, to support the argument and explore policies for improving competition. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L4, L42, L5, L51 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity