Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles? Staff Discussion Paper 2007-4 Meenakshi Basant Roi, Rhys R. Mendes The authors investigate the implications of house-price bubbles for the optimal inflation-target horizon using a dynamic general-equilibrium model with credit frictions, house-price bubbles, and small open-economy features. They find that, given the distribution of shocks and inflation persistence over the past 25 years, the optimal target horizon for Canada tends to be at the lower […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43
Some Economics of Private Digital Currency Staff Working Paper 2013-38 Joshua S. Gans, Hanna Halaburda This paper reviews some recent developments in digital currency, focusing on platform-sponsored currencies such as Facebook Credits. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D4, D42, E, E4, L, L5, L51
The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12
Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks Staff Working Paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight Staff Working Paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41
Institutional Quality, Trade, and the Changing Distribution of World Income Staff Working Paper 2006-19 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Conventional wisdom holds that institutional changes and trade liberalization are two main sources of growth in per capita income around the world. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F15, O, O1, O11, P, P4, P48
Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates? Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Nonparametric Identification of Incomplete Information Discrete Games with Non-equilibrium Behaviors Staff Working Paper 2022-22 Erhao Xie This paper jointly relaxes two assumptions in the literature that estimates games. These two assumptions are the parametric restriction on the model primitives and the restriction of equilibrium behaviors. Without imposing the above two assumptions, this paper identifies the primitives of the game. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57
E-Money: Efficiency, Stability and Optimal Policy Staff Working Paper 2014-16 Jonathan Chiu, Tsz-Nga Wong What makes e-money more special than cash? Is the introduction of e-money necessarily welfare enhancing? Is an e-money system necessarily stable? What is the optimal way to design an efficient and stable e-money scheme? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, L, L5, L51