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411 Results

Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade Credit

Staff working paper 2017-37 Lin Shao
In an economy where production takes place in multiple stages and is subject to financial frictions, how firms finance intermediate inputs matters for aggregate outcomes. This paper focuses on trade credit—the lending and borrowing of input goods between firms—and quantifies its aggregate impacts during the Great Recession.

Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle

Staff working paper 2023-9 Laure Simon
Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle.

Online Privacy and Information Disclosure by Consumers

Staff working paper 2019-22 Shota Ichihashi
A consumer discloses information to a multi-product seller, which learns about the consumer’s preferences, sets prices, and makes product recommendations. While the consumer benefits from accurate product recommendations, the seller may use the information to price discriminate.

Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies

Staff working paper 2021-6 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong
Digital currencies store balances in anonymous electronic addresses. This paper analyzes the trade-offs between the safety and convenience of aggregating balances in addresses, electronic wallets and banks.

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies

Staff working paper 2022-6 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Diego Perez
We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality.

Sectoral Uncertainty

Staff working paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.

Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving?

Staff working paper 2021-56 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight.

Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock

Staff working paper 2021-48 Ingomar Krohn, Philippe Mueller, Paul Whelan
We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes.

Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth Redistribution

Staff working paper 2021-38 Martin Kuncl, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting.

The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation

Staff working paper 2021-34 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra
The secular decline in real interest rates has created a challenge for monetary policy, now confronting the zero lower bound more often. An increase in the supply of safe assets reduces downward pressure on the natural interest rate. This allows monetary policy to reach price stability and full employment, but not without cost—permanently lower investment.
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