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386 Results

Job Applications and Labour Market Flows

Staff working paper 2021-49 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.

Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products

Staff working paper 2019-41 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin
Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows.

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies

Staff working paper 2022-6 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Diego Perez
We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality.

A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

Staff working paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie
This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.

Sectoral Uncertainty

Staff working paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.

Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm

We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking.

To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse

Staff working paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov
This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing.

Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data

Staff working paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin
We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.

Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment

Staff working paper 2018-6 Xiaoqing Zhou
The consumption boom-bust cycle in the 2000s coincided with large fluctuations in the volume of home equity borrowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I show that homeowners largely borrowed for residential investment and not consumption.

The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk

Staff working paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh
We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets.
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