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386 Results

Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment

Staff working paper 2025-26 Chao Gu, Janet Hua Jiang, Liang Wang
We identify two channels that affect the relationship between inflation and unemployment. First, inflation lowers wages because unemployed suffer more from inflation than employed, generating a positive relationship. Second, inflation increases firms’ financing costs, generating a negative relationship. Improvements in firm financing conditions can induce the relationship to switch signs.

Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment

We show that issuing a deposit-like central bank digital currency (CBDC) with a proper interest rate would encourage banks to pay higher interest to keep their customers. Banks would then attract more deposits and offer more loans. Hence, a CBDC would not necessarily crowd out private banking.

Volatility Risk and Economic Welfare

Staff working paper 2017-20 Shaofeng Xu
This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs.

Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity

Staff working paper 2021-30 Toni Ahnert, David Martinez-Miera
How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability.

Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints

Staff working paper 2023-10 Kim Huynh, Robert Petrunia, Joel Rodrigue, Walter Steingress
We examine the relationship between firms’ performance and credit constraints affecting export market entry. Using administrative Canadian firm-level data, our findings show that new exporters (a) increase their productivity, (b) raise their leverage ratio and (c) increase investment. We estimate that 48 percent of Canadian manufacturers face binding credit constraints when deciding whether to enter export markets.

How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?

Staff working paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See
Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients.

Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation

Staff working paper 2022-27 Wei Cui, Randall Wright, Yu Zhu
We study economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets then retrade it in secondary markets after information on idiosyncratic productivity arrives. Our secondary markets incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining and liquidity frictions.

Nonparametric Identification of Incomplete Information Discrete Games with Non-equilibrium Behaviors

Staff working paper 2022-22 Erhao Xie
This paper jointly relaxes two assumptions in the literature that estimates games. These two assumptions are the parametric restriction on the model primitives and the restriction of equilibrium behaviors. Without imposing the above two assumptions, this paper identifies the primitives of the game.

Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks

Staff working paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert
I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values.

Mandatory Retention Rules and Bank Risk

Staff working paper 2023-3 Yuteng Cheng
This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the unintended consequences of mandatory retention rules in securitization. It proposes a novel model showing that while retention strengthens monitoring, it may also encourage banks to shift risk.
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