The Shift in Canadian Immigration Composition and its Effect on Wages Staff discussion paper 2025-8 Julien Champagne, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Mallory Long We document recent changes in Canadian immigration, marked by an increasing prevalence of temporary residency. Using microdata from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey, we show that temporary workers' characteristics and nominal wages have diverged from those of Canadian-born workers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): J, J2, J20, J24, J6, J61 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports Staff working paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F3, F31, F32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks Staff working paper 2016-25 Laurent Ferrara, Pierre Guérin This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low-frequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Security of a CBDC Staff analytical note 2020-11 Cyrus Minwalla Security is an important element in ensuring public confidence in a central bank digital currency (CBDC). This note highlights the required security properties of a CBDC system and the challenges encountered with existing solutions, should the Bank of Canada choose to issue one. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3, O31 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Does Outward Foreign Investment Matter for Canadian Productivity? Evidence from Greenfield Investments Staff working paper 2018-31 Naveen Rai, Lena Suchanek, Maria Bernier This paper seeks to understand how outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affects the productivity of Canadian firms. We estimate the impact of outward greenfield investment on measures of firm-level productivity using FDI data from roughly 2,000 Canadian firms and more than 4,000 outward FDI projects over the 2003–14 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F2, F21, F23 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models Staff working paper 2022-31 Xiangjin Shen, Iskander Karibzhanov, Hiroki Tsurumi, Shiliang Li We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C3, C35, C5, C51, C6, C63, D, D1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
February 17, 2011 Adverse Selection and Financial Crises Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 Koralai Kirabaeva The recent financial crisis has highlighted the importance of adverse selection as a contributing factor to financial market instability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
January 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2004-2005 Cover page Promissory Notes The notes featured on the cover measure approximately 21 cm x 8 cm and form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Expectation-Driven Term Structure of Equity and Bond Yields Staff working paper 2022-21 Ming Zeng, Guihai Zhao Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of equilibrium asset pricing. This paper presents a new equilibrium model of subjective expectations to explain the joint historical dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada Staff discussion paper 2024-9 Bruno Feunou, Zabi Tarshi We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission