Credit Crunches from Occasionally Binding Bank Borrowing Constraints Staff Working Paper 2017-57 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E5, E51, G, G2
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data Staff Working Paper 2021-52 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, E37
Efficient Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts on Several Risky Assets Staff Working Paper 2006-43 Alexander Melnikov, Yuliya Romanyuk The authors use the efficient hedging methodology for optimal pricing and hedging of equity-linked life insurance contracts whose payoff depends on the performance of several risky assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, G, G1, G10, G12
When Bad Things Happen to Good Banks: Contagious Bank Runs and Currency Crises Staff Working Paper 2004-18 Raphael Solomon The author develops a twin crisis model featuring multiple banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F30, G, G2, G21
Unanticipated Defaults and Losses in Canada's Large-Value Payments System, Revisited Staff Discussion Paper 2007-5 Devin Ball, Walter Engert Recent work at the Bank of Canada studied the impact of default in Canada’s large-value payments system, and concluded that participants could readily manage their potential losses (McVanel 2005). In an extension of that work, the authors use a much larger set of daily payments data – with three times as many observations – to […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, G, G2, G21
November 20, 2018 Choosing the Best Monetary Policy Framework for Canada Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins McGill University Max Bell School of Public Policy Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses public policy issues around monetary policy frameworks and how those issues have become more complex in the post-global financial crisis world. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory Staff Discussion Paper 2017-13 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Carolyn A. Wilkins For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65
Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes Staff Working Paper 2023-40 Bruno Feunou We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes in which each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. We show that using GARG processes reduces pricing errors by substantially more than using existing autoregressive gamma processes does. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G1, G12
Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices Staff Working Paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32