Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4
A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-16 Chris D'Souza This paper clarifies the role and the impact of foreign exchange dealers in the relationship between foreign exchange intervention and nominal exchange rates using a unique dataset that disaggregates trades by dealer and by type of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14, G2, G21
Credit in a Tiered Payments System Staff Working Paper 2006-36 Alexandra Lai, Nikil Chande, Sean O'Connor Payments systems are typically characterized by some degree of tiering, with upstream firms (clearing agents) providing settlement accounts to downstream institutions that wish to clear and settle payments indirectly in these systems (indirect clearers). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, L, L1, L12, L13, L2, L22
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations? Staff Working Paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65
Driving Forces of the Canadian Economy: An Accounting Exercise Staff Working Paper 2008-14 Simona Cociuba, Alexander Ueberfeldt This paper analyses the Canadian economy for the post 1960 period. It uses an accounting procedure developed in Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2006). The procedure identifies accounting factors that help align the predictions of the neoclassical growth model with macroeconomic variables observed in the data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E65, O, O4, O41, O5, O51
Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process Staff Working Paper 2005-35 Fuchun Li A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14
Modelling Payments Systems: A Review of the Literature Staff Working Paper 2007-28 Jonathan Chiu, Alexandra Lai Payments systems play a fundamental role in an economy by providing the mechanisms through which payments arising from transactions can be settled. The existing literature on the economics of payments systems is large but loosely organized, in that each model uses a distinct set-up and sometimes a distinct equilibrium concept. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21
Monetary Policy Implementation and Payment System Modernization Staff Working Paper 2020-26 Jonathan Witmer Canada plans to adopt a retail payment system to allow Canadians to pay in real time (or near real time) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However, the traditional model for setting the overnight interest rate does not operate 24/7. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43
Analytical Derivatives for Markov Switching Models Staff Working Paper 1995-7 Jeff Gable, Simon van Norden, Robert Vigfusson This paper derives analytical gradients for a broad class of regime-switching models with Markovian state-transition probabilities. Such models are usually estimated by maximum likelihood methods, which require the derivatives of the likelihood function with respect to the parameter vector. These gradients are usually calculated by means of numerical techniques. The paper shows that analytical gradients […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods
Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design Staff Working Paper 2019-30 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Brent Hickman, Eric Richert Bank resolution is costly. In the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) typically resolves failing banks by auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, D, D4, D44, G, G2, G21