Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning Staff working paper 2022-29 Vladimir Skavysh, Sofia Priazhkina, Diego Guala, Thomas Bromley Using the quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we study whether quantum computing can improve the run time of economic applications and challenges in doing so. We apply the algorithm to two models: a stress testing bank model and a DSGE model solved with deep learning. We also present innovations in the algorithm and benchmark it to classical Monte Carlo. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C6, C61, C63, C68, C7, E, E1, E13, G, G1, G17, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution Staff working paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Addictive Platforms Staff working paper 2022-16 Shota Ichihashi, Byung-Cheol Kim We study competition for consumer attention, in which platforms can sacrifice service quality for attention. A platform can choose the “addictiveness” of its service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, L, L5, L51 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
News-Driven International Credit Cycles Staff working paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Artificial Intelligence and Financial Tail Risks Staff working paper 2026-40 Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrea Ugolini, Juan C. Reboredo This paper examines how market-perceived AI exposure is associated with extreme financial-sector gains and losses across five markets, using Expected Shortfall and skewness decompositions to distinguish AI-sector, macroeconomic, systemic and financial scenarios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US? Staff working paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Entry and Exit in Treasury Auctions Staff working paper 2024-29 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Eric Richert, Milena Wittwer This paper introduces and estimates a structural model of the Canadian primary market for government debt. We assess the role of dealer exit in this market as a key reason for increased, yet irregular, customer entry and quantify the benefits of greater customer competition against the costs of higher market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G1, G12, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market structure
Household Risk Assessment Model Technical report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Understanding DeFi Through the Lens of a Production-Network Model Staff working paper 2023-42 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl, Hanna Yu, Shengxing Zhang We develop a production-network model to capture how decentralized finance (DeFi) has evolved across different sectors of financial services. The model allows us to measure the value added by different DeFi sectors and to study how the connections across the sectors influence token prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes Staff working paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F44, H, H2, H20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness