Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan Staff Working Paper 2017-40 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev, Wataru Miyamoto Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E6, E62
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15
Housework and Fiscal Expansions Staff Working Paper 2014-34 Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser, Evi Pappa We build an otherwise-standard business cycle model with housework, calibrated consistently with data on time use, in order to discipline consumption-hours complementarity and relate its strength to the size of fiscal multipliers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52, E6, E62
Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review Staff Discussion Paper 2007-11 Steve Ambler The author surveys recent articles on the costs and benefits of price-level targeting versus inflation targeting, focusing on the benefits and costs of price-level targeting as a tool for stabilization policy. He reviews papers that examine how price-level targeting affects the short-run trade-off between output and inflation variability by influencing expectations of future inflation. The […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers Staff Working Paper 2021-9 João Granja, Nuno Paixão We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G20, G21, G28, G3, G34, L, L1, L11
September 14, 2010 Bundesbank Lecture 2010: The Economic Consequences of the Reforms Remarks Mark Carney Deutsche Bundesbank Berlin, Germany Keynes wrote prophetically of the economic consequences of the Treaty of Versailles. Could the same be said of current financial reforms? Are policy-makers taking for granted the essential role performed by finance in a vain pursuit of its risk-proofing? Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff Working Paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
Nowcasting the Global Economy Staff Discussion Paper 2010-12 James Rossiter Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
Market Structure and the Diffusion of E-Commerce: Evidence from the Retail Banking Industry Staff Working Paper 2008-32 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde This paper studies the role that market structure plays in affecting the diffusion of electronic banking. Electronic banking (and electronic commerce more generally) reduces the cost of performing many types of transactions for firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L1