Sectoral Uncertainty Staff working paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C55, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
January 26, 2012 Collateral Valuation for Extreme Market Events Financial System Review - December 2006 Alejandro García, Ramazan Gençay Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Market Operations Related to COVID-19 Staff discussion paper 2023-6 Grahame Johnson This paper reviews the range of extraordinary programs launched by the Bank of Canada in response to the pandemic-related financial market disruption. It provides some recommendations for future interventions to ensure the programs are appropriately structured for the financial and economic stresses they are intended to address. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G21, G23, H, H1, H12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions Staff working paper 2017-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large—a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Understanding DeFi Through the Lens of a Production-Network Model Staff working paper 2023-42 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl, Hanna Yu, Shengxing Zhang We develop a production-network model to capture how decentralized finance (DeFi) has evolved across different sectors of financial services. The model allows us to measure the value added by different DeFi sectors and to study how the connections across the sectors influence token prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
June 23, 2004 Financial System Review - June 2004 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. In each issue, one or more subjects of particular interest are discussed as highlighted topics. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Online Privacy and Information Disclosure by Consumers Staff working paper 2019-22 Shota Ichihashi A consumer discloses information to a multi-product seller, which learns about the consumer’s preferences, sets prices, and makes product recommendations. While the consumer benefits from accurate product recommendations, the seller may use the information to price discriminate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
December 10, 2013 The Residential Mortgage Market in Canada: A Primer Financial System Review - December 2013 Allan Crawford, Césaire Meh, Jie Zhou Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Predicting Payment Migration in Canada Staff working paper 2020-37 Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu, Gabriel Xerri Developments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
The Dynamic Canadian Debt Strategy Model Technical report No. 127 Nicolas Audet, Joe Ning, Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao We present a dynamic debt strategy model framework designed to assist sovereign debt portfolio managers in choosing an optimal debt issuance strategy. The main innovation of this framework is the introduction of dynamic issuance strategies, which allow issuance decisions to vary over time based on the model’s simulated state variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63, H68 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods