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3045 Results

Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard

Staff Working Paper 2008-27 Paul Masson, Malik Shukayev
Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
June 9, 2010

Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?

Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy.

Market structure of cryptoasset exchanges: Introduction, challenges and emerging trends

This paper provides an overview of cryptoasset exchanges. We contrast their design with exchanges in traditional financial markets and discuss emerging regulatory trends and innovations aimed at solving the problems cryptoasset exchanges face.

Unsecured Debt, Consumer Bankruptcy, and Small Business

Staff Working Paper 2008-5 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima
In this paper we develop a quantitative model of entrepreneurial activity (risk-taking) and consumer bankruptcy choices and use the model to study the effects of bankruptcy regulations on entrepreneurial activity, bankruptcy rate and welfare.

The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding

Staff Working Paper 2024-16 Michael Boutros, Andrej Mijakovic
Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run.
April 8, 2009

Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review

This article reviews arguments in the literature for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting. Benefits of price-level targeting include the effect on forward-looking inflation expectations; the ability to substitute for commitment by a central bank to its future policies; lessening forecast errors; better economic performance in response to real shocks because of lower wage indexation; and a reduction in the problem of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.

Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

Price Discovery in Canadian and U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Markets

Staff Working Paper 2007-43 Bryan Campbell, Scott Hendry
This paper presents some new results on the price discovery process in both the Canadian and U.S. 10-year Government bond markets using high-frequency data not previously analyzed. Using techniques introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Gonzalo-Granger (1995), we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices in the market for Canadian Government bonds using futures market data from the Montreal Exchange and OTC cash market data reflecting the inter-dealer market covered by CanPx.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, G14

Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review

Staff Discussion Paper 2007-11 Steve Ambler
The author surveys recent articles on the costs and benefits of price-level targeting versus inflation targeting, focusing on the benefits and costs of price-level targeting as a tool for stabilization policy. He reviews papers that examine how price-level targeting affects the short-run trade-off between output and inflation variability by influencing expectations of future inflation. The […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
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