Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy Staff Working Paper 1995-2 Alain DeSerres, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output
The Impact of Retail Payment Innovations on Cash Usage Staff Working Paper 2012-14 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Leonard Sabetti Many predict that innovations in retail payment may render cash obsolete. We investigate this possibility in the context of recent payment innovations such as contactless-credit and stored-value cards. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, E, E4, E41
Identifying Policy-makers' Objectives: An Application to the Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2000-11 Nicholas Rowe, James Yetman In this paper, we develop a new way to test hypotheses about policy-makers' targets, and we implement that test for Canadian monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E61
The 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program in Retrospect Staff Working Paper 2005-43 John Sargent The author provides an overview of the 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program (AIP), in a background document prepared for a seminar organized by the Bank of Canada to mark the AIP's 30th anniversary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63, E64, E65
Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard Staff Working Paper 2008-27 Paul Masson, Malik Shukayev Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20
Unsecured Debt, Consumer Bankruptcy, and Small Business Staff Working Paper 2008-5 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima In this paper we develop a quantitative model of entrepreneurial activity (risk-taking) and consumer bankruptcy choices and use the model to study the effects of bankruptcy regulations on entrepreneurial activity, bankruptcy rate and welfare. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, J, J2, J23
The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding Staff Working Paper 2024-16 Michael Boutros, Andrej Mijakovic Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, E6, E62, G, G5, G51
Nowcasting the Global Economy Staff Discussion Paper 2010-12 James Rossiter Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
December 23, 2004 Monetary Policy, Private Information, and International Stock Markets Financial System Review - December 2004 Gregory Bauer, Clara Vega Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles