Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession Staff Working Paper 2011-24 Joshua Aizenman, Gurnain Pasricha In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price indices was comparable to that in high income countries, indicating that there was no decoupling, even before Lehman Brothers’ demise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15
The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey Staff Working Paper 2021-57 Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Isabelle Salle A multi-country consumer survey investigates why and how much households decreased their consumption in five key sectors after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted in Europe in July 2020. Beyond infection risk and precautionary saving motives, households also reported not missing some consumption items, which may indicate preference shifts and structural changes in the post-COVID-19 economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D81, D84, E, E2, E21, E6, E60, E7, E71
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth Staff Discussion Paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Gabriella Velasco, Calista Cheung This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37, R, R1, R11
What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market? Staff Working Paper 2014-42 Ron Alquist, Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43
Housework and Fiscal Expansions Staff Working Paper 2014-34 Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser, Evi Pappa We build an otherwise-standard business cycle model with housework, calibrated consistently with data on time use, in order to discipline consumption-hours complementarity and relate its strength to the size of fiscal multipliers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52, E6, E62
Recent Developments in Self-Employment in Canada Staff Working Paper 2005-8 Nadja Kamhi, Danny Leung The authors document the recent evolution of the self-employment rate in Canada. Between 1987 and 1998, the self-employment rate rose 3.5 percentage points from 13.8 per cent to 17.3 per cent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J2, J23, J24
Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence Staff Working Paper 2009-11 Oleksiy Kryvtsov Models with imperfect information that generate persistent monetary nonneutrality predominantly rely on assumptions leading to substantial heterogeneity of information across price-setters. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model in which the degree of heterogeneity of information is determined endogenously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E31, E32
Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard Staff Working Paper 2008-27 Paul Masson, Malik Shukayev Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage Staff Discussion Paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51
Unsecured Debt, Consumer Bankruptcy, and Small Business Staff Working Paper 2008-5 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima In this paper we develop a quantitative model of entrepreneurial activity (risk-taking) and consumer bankruptcy choices and use the model to study the effects of bankruptcy regulations on entrepreneurial activity, bankruptcy rate and welfare. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, J, J2, J23