November 19, 2015 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 In this issue, Bank researchers discuss the muted recovery from the 2007–09 financial crisis and possible causes. There are also discussions about the Bank’s new Canadian survey of household expectations, measuring both durable goods and housing prices in the CPI and how regulatory changes may affect monetary policy operating frameworks. In the final article, improvements to the management of Canada’s foreign exchange reserves are introduced. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate Staff working paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
January 25, 2012 Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada Financial System Review - December 2007 Rose Cunningham, Ilan Kolet Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Job Ladder and Business Cycles Staff working paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Privacy-Enhancing Technologies for CBDC Solutions Staff discussion paper 2025-1 Rakesh Arora, Han Du, Raza Ali Kazmi, Duc-Phong Le Privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) could offer solutions to safeguard end-user privacy and meet rigorous data protection standards for central bank digital currencies. We consider how PETs can transform privacy design in financial systems and the implications of their broader adoption. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, O, O3, O31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance Staff working paper 2023-35 Amina Enkhbold I study how banking market concentration and reliance on wholesale funding affect monetary policy transmission to mortgage rates. I find that this transmission is imperfect and dampens the response of consumption, output, and housing prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message Staff discussion paper 2016-13 Stephen S. Poloz In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
December 10, 2013 Margining for Non-Centrally Cleared Over-the-Counter Derivatives Financial System Review - December 2013 Nikil Chande, Stéphane Lavoie, Thomas Thorn Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results Staff working paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D11, D12, D6, D8, D83, L, L4, L40 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
The Sectoral Origins of Post-Pandemic Inflation Staff working paper 2025-37 Jan David Schneider This paper quantifies the contribution of sector-specific supply and demand shocks to personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation. It derives identification restrictions that are consistent with a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with production networks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, E, E3, E31, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures