Financial Crisis Interventions Staff Working Paper 2016-29 Josef Schroth This paper develops a model of an economy where bank credit supports both productive investment and individual consumption smoothing in the face of idiosyncratic income risk. Bank credit is constrained by bank equity capital. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44
Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks Staff Analytical Note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C3, C38, D, D1, D14, Q, Q5, Q54
An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2004-48 David Bolder, Adam Metzler, Grahame Johnson Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs Staff Working Paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, F2, F23
December 21, 2006 Financial System Review - December 2006 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Nowcasting the Global Economy Staff Discussion Paper 2010-12 James Rossiter Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan Staff Working Paper 2017-40 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev, Wataru Miyamoto Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E6, E62
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2015-45 Gabriel Bruneau, Kevin Moran We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand, and the econometric strategy employs a panel two-step approach for cointegrating regressions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, F, F1, F14, F16, F3, F31, F4, F41, J, J2, J23
The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 3. The Dynamic Model: QPM Technical Report No. 75 Donald Coletti, Benjamin Hunt, David Rose, Robert Tetlow The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the consistent behavioural structure necessary for policy analysis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17
Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China? Staff Working Paper 2018-12 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu, Sri Thanabalasingam The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C55, E, E2, E24, E27