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2185 Results

Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions

Staff working paper 2017-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios
This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large—a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability.

Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment

Staff working paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant
We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities.

Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

Staff working paper 2020-17 Xing Guo
This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.

Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans

Staff working paper 2024-1 Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie, Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.

The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message

Staff discussion paper 2016-13 Stephen S. Poloz
In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability.

Sectoral Uncertainty

Staff working paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.
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