How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff discussion paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff analytical note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles Staff working paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products Staff working paper 2019-41 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Limited Commitment, Endogenous Credibility and the Challenges of Price-level Targeting Staff working paper 2018-61 Gino Cateau, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the cost of limited commitment when a central bank has the discretion to adjust policy whenever the costs of honoring its past commitments become high. Specifically, we consider a central bank that seeks to implement optimal policy in a New Keynesian model by committing to a price-level target path. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
December 23, 2002 Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Non-Technical Survey Financial System Review - December 2002 Veronika Dolar, Césaire Meh Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Climate Change and Socio-economic inequality in the US Staff working paper 2026-16 Barbara Sadaba, Tatjana Dahlhaus This paper examines how climate change affects income inequality across US states. Using a new climate-inequality VAR and a century of daily temperature data, it shows that shifts across the full temperature distribution—not just average warming—have diverse effects on within-state inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, D, D6, D63, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Climate change
What Drives Episodes of Settlement Fails in the Government of Canada Bond Market? Staff working paper 2017-54 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Pinnington, Adrian Walton We study settlement fails for trades in the Government of Canada bond market. We find that settlement fails do not occur independently. Using a novel and comprehensive dataset, we examine three drivers of fails. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G1, G2, G21, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
How Do Some Lower-Income Canadians Pay Staff analytical paper 2026-6 Jerry Buckland, Christopher Henry, Wendy Nur, Aidan Romanow-Bear, Stephen Wild Previous research suggests that lower-income Canadians may have unique experiences with the use of payments, including the use of cash and digital payments. We conduct a case study using data from [the Canadian Financial Diaries project/Canadian financial diaries] to gain insight into how some lower-income Canadians pay. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
Opaque Assets and Rollover Risk Staff working paper 2016-17 Benjamin Nelson, Toni Ahnert We model the asset-opacity choice of an intermediary subject to rollover risk in wholesale funding markets. Greater opacity means investors form more dispersed beliefs about an intermediary’s profitability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk