January 25, 2012 Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada Financial System Review - December 2007 Rose Cunningham, Ilan Kolet Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate Staff working paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results Staff working paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D11, D12, D6, D8, D83, L, L4, L40 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
The Sectoral Origins of Post-Pandemic Inflation Staff working paper 2025-37 Jan David Schneider This paper quantifies the contribution of sector-specific supply and demand shocks to personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation. It derives identification restrictions that are consistent with a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with production networks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, E, E3, E31, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
November 19, 2015 Is Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker This article reviews and examines some of the main explanations for the slow growth that many advanced economies continue to experience seven years after the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Does this muted recovery reflect just a prolonged cycle in the aftermath of a financial crisis? Is it due to a structural inadequacy of demand leading to a long-lasting liquidity trap? Or is it largely supply side in nature, reflecting demographic and technological factors? Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4, O40
Credit Card Minimum Payment Restrictions Staff working paper 2024-26 Jason Allen, Michael Boutros, Benedict Guttman-Kenney We study a government policy that restricts repayment choices with the aim of reducing credit card debt and estimate its effects by applying a difference-in-differences methodology to comprehensive credit-reporting data about Canadian consumers. We find the policy has trade-offs: reducing revolving debt comes at a cost of reducing credit access, and potentially increasing delinquency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D18, E, E2, E21, G, G2, G28, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight Staff working paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Dynamic Canadian Debt Strategy Model Technical report No. 127 Nicolas Audet, Joe Ning, Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao We present a dynamic debt strategy model framework designed to assist sovereign debt portfolio managers in choosing an optimal debt issuance strategy. The main innovation of this framework is the introduction of dynamic issuance strategies, which allow issuance decisions to vary over time based on the model’s simulated state variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63, H68 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
June 11, 2015 Financial System Review - June 2015 The Reports section of the Financial System Review examines selected issues of relevance to the Canadian and global financial systems. The June 2015 issue features two reports summarizing recent work by Bank of Canada staff on specific financial sector policies. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
A Tale of Two Countries: Cash Demand in Canada and Sweden Staff discussion paper 2019-7 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Björn Segendorf Cash use for payments has been steadily decreasing in many countries, including Canada and Sweden. This might suggest an evolution toward a cashless society. But in Canada, cash in circulation relative to GDP has been stable for decades and has even increased in recent years. By contrast, the cash-to-GDP ratio in Sweden has been falling steadily. What has caused this difference? Are there lessons to be learned from comparing the Canadian and Swedish experiences? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments