Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013 Staff working paper 2016-48 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message Staff discussion paper 2016-13 Stephen S. Poloz In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
August 16, 2012 Measurement Bias in the Canadian Consumer Price Index: An Update Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2012 Patrick Sabourin The consumer price index (CPI) is the most commonly used measure to track changes in the overall level of prices. Since it departs from a true cost-of-living index, the CPI is subject to four types of measurement bias—commodity substitution, outlet substitution, new goods and quality adjustment. The author updates previous Bank of Canada estimates of measurement bias in the Canadian CPI by examining these four sources of potential bias. He finds the total measurement bias over the 2005–11 period to be about 0.5 percentage point per year, consistent with the Bank’s earlier findings. Slightly more than half of this bias is caused by the fixed nature of the CPI basket of goods and services. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Predicting Payment Migration in Canada Staff working paper 2020-37 Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu, Gabriel Xerri Developments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
June 8, 2017 Financial System Review - June 2017 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that household indebtedness and housing market imbalances–the most important vulnerabilities for the Canadian financial system–have moved higher over the past six months. However, the financial system remains resilient, and macroeconomic conditions continue to improve. Other vulnerabilities discussed in this FSR are fragile fixed-income market liquidity and the capacity of an interconnected financial system to mitigate cyber threats. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
June 23, 2005 A Brief Survey of Risk-Appetite Indexes Financial System Review - June 2005 Mark Illing, Meyer Aaron Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
May 25, 2017 Upgrading the Payments Grid: The Payoffs Are Greater Than You Think Remarks Sylvain Leduc Payments Canada Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses how upgrading Canada’s core payment systems will contribute to financial stability and help the Bank keep inflation on target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Fintech
December 10, 2013 Margining for Non-Centrally Cleared Over-the-Counter Derivatives Financial System Review - December 2013 Nikil Chande, Stéphane Lavoie, Thomas Thorn Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada Staff working paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F4, F43, Q, Q3, Q33, Q4, Q43, R, R1, R12, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
December 21, 2008 A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy Financial System Review - December 2008 Hajime Tomura Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles