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3046 Results

Nowcasting the Global Economy

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-12 James Rossiter
Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47

Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy

Staff Working Paper 1995-2 Alain DeSerres, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant
In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and […]

Bank Lending, Credit Shocks, and the Transmission of Canadian Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2003-9 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Ali Dib
The authors use a dynamic general-equilibrium model to study the role financial frictions play as a transmission mechanism of Canadian monetary policy, and to evaluate the real effects of exogenous credit shocks. Financial frictions, which are modelled as spreads between deposit and loan interest rates, are assumed to depend on economic activity as well as on credit shocks.

Financial Crisis Interventions

Staff Working Paper 2016-29 Josef Schroth
This paper develops a model of an economy where bank credit supports both productive investment and individual consumption smoothing in the face of idiosyncratic income risk. Bank credit is constrained by bank equity capital.

Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs

Staff Working Paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress
This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, F2, F23
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