July 6, 2026 Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey questions on the magnitude of change in sales, investment, employment and prices In 2016 and 2017, the Bank of Canada added questions to the Business Outlook Survey on firms’ expectations for the magnitude of change in their sales volumes, number of employees, investment spending, input prices and selling prices. This backgrounder describes how the responses are aggregated and examines their relationship with macroeconomic and price measures. Content Type(s): Background materials
A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality Staff discussion paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places Staff working paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
March 28, 2005 The Thiessen Lectures Lectures delivered by Gordon G. Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada 1994 to 2001 Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs
June 8, 2017 Financial System Review - June 2017 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that household indebtedness and housing market imbalances–the most important vulnerabilities for the Canadian financial system–have moved higher over the past six months. However, the financial system remains resilient, and macroeconomic conditions continue to improve. Other vulnerabilities discussed in this FSR are fragile fixed-income market liquidity and the capacity of an interconnected financial system to mitigate cyber threats. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
May 25, 2017 Upgrading the Payments Grid: The Payoffs Are Greater Than You Think Remarks Sylvain Leduc Payments Canada Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses how upgrading Canada’s core payment systems will contribute to financial stability and help the Bank keep inflation on target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Fintech
Price-Level Dispersion versus Inflation-Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries Staff working paper 2017-3 David Fielding, Christopher Hajzler, James (Jim) C. MacGee Inflation can affect both the dispersion of commodity-specific price levels across locations (relative price variability, RPV) and the dispersion of inflation rates (relative inflation variability, RIV). Some menu-cost models and models of consumer search suggest that the RIV-inflation relationship could differ from the RPV-inflation relationship. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
June 23, 2005 A Brief Survey of Risk-Appetite Indexes Financial System Review - June 2005 Mark Illing, Meyer Aaron Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks Staff working paper 2024-8 Amina Enkhbold I investigate how monetary policy transmits to mortgage rates via the mortgage market concentration channel for both traditional and shadow banks in the United States from 2009 to 2019. On average, shadow and traditional banks exhibit only a slight disparity in transmitting monetary shocks to mortgage rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Sectoral Uncertainty Staff working paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C55, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting