Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory Staff Discussion Paper 2017-13 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Carolyn A. Wilkins For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65
A Structural VAR Approach to Core Inflation in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2008-10 Sylvain Martel The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This "macro-founded" measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31
Import Price Dynamics in Major Advanced Economies and Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Pass-Through Staff Working Paper 2008-39 Stephane Dees, Matthias Burgert, Nicolas Parent This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F3, F4, F41
The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada Staff Working Paper 1996-12 Mario Lefebvre, Stephen S. Poloz This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32
Security and convenience of a central bank digital currency Staff Analytical Note 2020-21 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra An anonymous token-based central bank digital currency (CBDC) would pose certain security risks to users. These risks arise from how balances are aggregated, from their transactional use and from the competition between suppliers of aggregation solutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21
June 16, 2006 Global Imbalances—Just How Dangerous? Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Bruce Little, Robert Lafrance The combination of rising current account surpluses in Asia and a growing current account deficit in the United States has raised concerns that the resulting imbalances pose a threat to the world economy, especially if they are reversed in a disorderly manner. Some experts believe that normal market forces will resolve these imbalances over time; others argue that policy-makers should facilitate the adjustment with policies that curb domestic demand in deficit countries and stimulate it in surplus countries. Little and Lafrance provide a guide to the major issues and controversies involved in the debate. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics
June 23, 2005 Understanding the Benefits and Risks of Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligations Financial System Review - June 2005 Jim Armstrong, John Kiff Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Bank Lending, Credit Shocks, and the Transmission of Canadian Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2003-9 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Ali Dib The authors use a dynamic general-equilibrium model to study the role financial frictions play as a transmission mechanism of Canadian monetary policy, and to evaluate the real effects of exogenous credit shocks. Financial frictions, which are modelled as spreads between deposit and loan interest rates, are assumed to depend on economic activity as well as on credit shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E5, E51
November 18, 2010 Trends in Issuance: Underlying Factors and Implications Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2010 Jonathan Witmer Trends in debt issuance have changed significantly over the past decade, both prior to the financial crisis and subsequently. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies
Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy Staff Working Paper 1995-2 Alain DeSerres, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output