Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices Staff working paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
March 28, 2005 The Thiessen Lectures Lectures delivered by Gordon G. Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada 1994 to 2001 Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.
Consumers’ Path to Mortgage Delinquency Staff analytical paper 2026-3 Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao, Aidan Witts Analyzing TransUnion data from 2015–2024, this study identifies a systematic timeline of distress where rising credit utilization and non-mortgage arrears precede mortgage delinquency by up to two years. This deterioration intensifies in the final six months, providing a robust suite of high-frequency indicators for monitoring emerging household stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
August 15, 2013 Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results Staff working paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D11, D12, D6, D8, D83, L, L4, L40 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Multibank Holding Companies and Bank Stability Staff working paper 2018-51 Radoslav Raykov, Consuelo Silva-Buston This paper studies the relationship between bank holding company affiliation and the individual and systemic risk of banks. Using the 2005 hurricane season in the US as an exogenous shock to bank balance sheets, we show that banks that are part of a holding parent company are more resilient than independent banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
COVID-19 Crisis: Lessons Learned for Future Policy Research Staff discussion paper 2021-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Corey Garriott, Jesse Johal, Jessica Lee, Andreas Uthemann One year later, we review the events that took place in Canadian fixed-income markets at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis and propose potential policy research questions for future work. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G20, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight Staff working paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Online Privacy and Information Disclosure by Consumers Staff working paper 2019-22 Shota Ichihashi A consumer discloses information to a multi-product seller, which learns about the consumer’s preferences, sets prices, and makes product recommendations. While the consumer benefits from accurate product recommendations, the seller may use the information to price discriminate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity