Sluggish Forecasts Staff working paper 2018-39 Monica Jain Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Privacy as a Public Good: A Case for Electronic Cash Staff working paper 2019-24 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt Cash gives users a high level of privacy when making payments, but the use of cash to make payments is declining. People increasingly use debit cards, credit cards or other methods to pay. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health Staff analytical note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
An update on the Canadian money market mutual fund sector Staff analytical note 2025-25 Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova, Rishi Vala We examine the Canadian money market fund (MMF) sector and find that it has grown rapidly, holding a large share of treasury bills and commercial paper. Unlike in some other jurisdictions where investor outflows likely amplified stresses, Canadian MMFs experienced inflows during the March 2020 market turmoil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Monetary Policy Governance: Bank of Canada Practices to Support Policy Effectiveness Staff discussion paper 2024-14 Brigitte Desroches, Sharon Kozicki, Laure Simon We examine different monetary policy governance structures and discuss the important roles of non-legislated processes and practices. We also provide an update on monetary policy governance at the Bank of Canada and how it has evolved over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth Redistribution Staff working paper 2021-38 Martin Kuncl, Alexander Ueberfeldt Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
October 19, 2020 Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey question on wage growth Starting with the 2020 autumn survey, the results from a question on labour cost growth are being included in the Business Outlook Survey. This document describes the question and presents the correlations between the responses and various measures of wages and employment. Content Type(s): Background materials
Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage Staff working paper 2020-56 Marie-Hélène Felt Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk Staff working paper 2017-59 Maarten van Oordt The present paper shows that, everything else equal, some transactions to transfer portfolio credit risk to third-party investors increase the insolvency risk of banks. This is particularly likely if a bank sells the senior tranche and retains a sufficiently large first-loss position. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Redemption Runs in Canadian Corporate Bond Funds? Staff analytical note 2018-21 Rohan Arora Mutual funds employ a host of tools to manage redemption run risk. However, our results suggest that Canadian corporate bond funds may be vulnerable to redemption runs, especially when they are less liquid and when market volatility is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk