An update on the Canadian money market mutual fund sector Staff analytical note 2025-25 Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova, Rishi Vala We examine the Canadian money market fund (MMF) sector and find that it has grown rapidly, holding a large share of treasury bills and commercial paper. Unlike in some other jurisdictions where investor outflows likely amplified stresses, Canadian MMFs experienced inflows during the March 2020 market turmoil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Sluggish Forecasts Staff working paper 2018-39 Monica Jain Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans Staff working paper 2024-1 Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie, Xu Zhang This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G5, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Structural challenges, Climate change
Privacy as a Public Good: A Case for Electronic Cash Staff working paper 2019-24 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt Cash gives users a high level of privacy when making payments, but the use of cash to make payments is declining. People increasingly use debit cards, credit cards or other methods to pay. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment Staff working paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G3 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
June 7, 2018 The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Survey Financial System Review - June 2018 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Ian Christensen, Scott Kinnear, Maxime Leboeuf This report presents the details of a new semi-annual survey that will improve the Bank of Canada’s surveillance across the financial system and deepen efforts to engage with financial system participants. The survey collects expert opinions on the risks to and resilience of the Canadian financial system as well as on emerging trends and financial innovations. The report presents an overview of the survey and provides high-level results from the spring 2018 survey. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G28, G3, G32
Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage Staff working paper 2020-56 Marie-Hélène Felt Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation? Staff working paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers Staff working paper 2020-18 Katya Kartashova, Xiaoqing Zhou We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting