The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy Technical Report No. 92 Denise Côté, John Kuszczak, Jean-Paul Lam, Ying Liu, Pierre St-Amant In this report, we evaluate several simple monetary policy rules in twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy. Our results indicate that none of the simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty, in that no single rule performs well in all models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Market: Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns between Markets Staff Working Paper 1997-18 David Watt This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
June 21, 2008 A Model of Tiered Settlement Networks Financial System Review - June 2008 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Bitcoin Awareness and Usage in Canada Staff Working Paper 2017-56 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls There has been tremendous discussion of Bitcoin, digital currencies and FinTech. However, there is limited empirical evidence of Bitcoin’s adoption and usage. We propose a methodology to collect a nationally representative sample using the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to track the ubiquity and usage of Bitcoin in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4
Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China? Staff Working Paper 2018-12 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu, Sri Thanabalasingam The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C55, E, E2, E24, E27
Endogenously Segmented Asset Market in an Inventory Theoretic Model of Money Demand Staff Working Paper 2007-46 Jonathan Chiu This paper studies the effects of monetary policy in an inventory theoretic model of money demand. In this model, agents keep inventories of money, despite the fact that money is dominated in rate of return by interest bearing assets, because they must pay a fixed cost to transfer funds between the asset market and the goods market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E41, E5, E50
Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence Using a New Index Staff Working Paper 2010-35 Gurnain Pasricha This paper finds a strong empirical link between domestic banking sector competitiveness and de facto international integration. De-facto international integration is measured through a new index of financial integration, which measures, for deviations from covered interest parity, the size of no-arbitrage bands and the speed of arbitrage outside the no-arbitrage band. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15, G2, G21
The U.S. Stock Market and Fundamentals: A Historical Decomposition Staff Working Paper 2003-20 David Dupuis, David Tessier The authors identify the fundamentals behind the dynamics of the U.S. stock market over the past 30 years. They specify a structural vector-error-correction model following the methodology of King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1
Uncertainty, Inflation, and Welfare Staff Working Paper 2008-13 Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico This paper studies the welfare costs and the redistributive effects of inflation in the presence of idiosyncratic liquidity risk, in a micro-founded search-theoretical monetary model. We calibrate the model to match the empirical aggregate money demand and the distribution of money holdings across households, and study the effects of inflation under the implied degree of market incompleteness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50